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These projections are a reflection of Scott Feinberg's personal impressions (from advance screenings), publicly available information (release dates, genres, talent rosters and teasers/trailers often offer valuable clues), historical considerations (how other films with similar pedigrees have resonated), precursor awards (some awards groups have historically correlated with the Academy more than others) and consultations with industry insiders (including fellow members of the press, awards strategists, filmmakers and awards voters).
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Best Picture
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Lionsgate)
Moonlight (A24)
Lion (The Weinstein Co.)
Manchester by the Sea (Amazon/Roadside Attractions)
Fences (Paramount)
Hell or High Water (CBS Films)
Jackie (Fox Searchlight)
Hidden Figures (Fox)
The Founder (The Weinstein Co.)
Patriots Day (CBS Films/Lionsgate)MAJOR THREATS
Sully (Warner Bros.)
Silence (Paramount)
Loving (Focus Features)
Hacksaw Ridge (Lionsgate)
20th Century Women (A24)
Rules Don't Apply (Fox)POSSIBILITIES
Florence Foster Jenkins (Paramount)
The Jungle Book (Disney)
Arrival (Paramount) [pictured above]
Live By Night (Warner Bros.)
The Birth of a Nation (Fox Searchlight)LONG SHOTS
Captain Fantastic (Bleecker Street)
Eye in the Sky (Bleecker Street)
The Lobster (A24)
Allied (Paramount)
I, Daniel Blake (IFC Films) -
Best Director
FRONTRUNNERS
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Pablo Larrain (Jackie) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Martin Scorsese (Silence)
Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge)
Clint Eastwood (Sully)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Garth Davis (Lion)
David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)POSSIBILITIES
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Jon Favreau (The Jungle Book)
Jeff Nichols (Loving)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
John Lee Hancock (The Founder)
Peter Berg (Patriots Day)LONG SHOTS
Ang Lee (Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk)
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Mike Mills (20th Century Women)
Ted Melfi (Hidden Figures)
Robert Zemeckis (Allied) -
Best Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Denzel Washington (Fences)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Michael Keaton (The Founder)
Tom Hanks (Sully)MAJOR THREATS
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Warren Beatty (Rules Don't Apply)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic) [pictured above]
Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Mark Wahlberg (Patriots Day)
Matthew McConaughey (Gold)POSSIBILITIES
Robert De Niro (The Comedian)
Ben Affleck (Live By Night)
Miles Teller (Bleed for This)
Chris Pine (Hell or High Water)
Alden Ehrenreich (Rules Don't Apply)
Andrew Garfield (Silence)LONG SHOTS
Nate Parker (The Birth of a Nation)
Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden)
Adam Driver (Paterson)
Sunny Pawar (Lion) NEW
Ethan Hawke (Born to Be Blue)
Don Cheadle (Miles Ahead) -
Best Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)
Annette Bening (20th Century Women)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Isabelle Huppert (Elle)MAJOR THREATS
Ruth Negga (Loving)
Taraji P. Henson (Hidden Figures)
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Lily Collins (Rules Don't Apply)POSSIBILITIES
Marion Cotillard (Allied)
Kate Beckinsale (Love & Friendship)
Jessica Chastain (Miss Sloane) [pictured above]
Rachel Weisz (Denial)LONG SHOTS
Rebecca Hall (Christine)
Hailee Steinfeld (Edge of Seventeen) NEW
Sarah Paulson (Blue Jay) -
Best Supporting Actor
FRONTRUNNERS
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)
Simon Helberg (Florence Foster Jenkins) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Kevin Costner (Hidden Figures) NEW
Stephen McKinley Henderson (Fences)
Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Liam Neeson (Silence)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Ben Foster (Hell or High Water)POSSIBILITIES
Alan Rickman (Eye in the Sky)
Trevante Rhodes (Moonlight) NEW
Armie Hammer (The Birth of a Nation)
Timothy Spall (Denial)
David Oyelowo (Queen of Katwe)
Eddie Murphy (Mr. Church)LONG SHOTS
Jeremy Irons (The Man Who Knew Infinity)
Aaron Eckhart (Bleed for This)
Andre Holland (Moonlight)
Mykelti Williamson (Fences)
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals) NEW -
Best Supporting Actress
FRONTRUNNERS
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Viola Davis (Fences)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Janelle Monae (Hidden Figures)MAJOR THREATS
Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures)
Helen Mirren (Eye in the Sky)
Margo Martindale (The Hollars)
Leslie Mann (The Comedian) NEWPOSSIBILITIES
Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
Elle Fanning (20th Century Women)
Molly Shannon (Other People)
Lupita Nyong'o (Queen of Katwe) [pictured above]LONG SHOTS
Felicity Jones (A Monster Calls)
Janelle Monae (Moonlight)
Aja Naomi King (The Birth of a Nation)
Margaret Bowman (Hell or High Water) NEW -
Best Adapted Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Lion (Luke Davies)
Fences (August Wilson)
Sully (Todd Komarnicki)
Hidden Figures (Allison Schroeder, Theodore Melfi )
Hacksaw Ridge (Andrew Knight, Robert Schenkkan) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
Silence (Jay Cocks, Martin Scorsese)
Live By Night (Ben Affleck)
Arrival (Eric Heisserer)
The Jungle Book (Justin Marks)POSSIBILITIES
Julieta (Pedro Almodovar)
Snowden (Kieran Fitzgerald, Oliver Stone)
Love & Friendship (Whit Stillman)
Denial (David Hare)LONG SHOTS
Nocturnal Animals (Tom Ford)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (J.K. Rowling)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Simon Beaufoy, Jean-Christophe Castelli)
The Little Prince (Irena Brignull, Bob Persichetti) -
Best Original Screenplay
FRONTRUNNERS
Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
Manchester by the Sea (Kenneth Lonergan)
Hell or High Water (Taylor Sheridan)
La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
Captain Fantastic (Matt Ross)MAJOR THREATS
The Founder (Robert D. Siegel) [pictured above]
Patriots Day (Peter Berg, Matt Cook, Joshua Zetumer)
Loving (Jeff Nichols)
The Lobster (Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthymis Filippou)
20th Century Women (Mike Mills)POSSIBILITIES
Jackie (Noah Oppenheim)
Rules Don't Apply (Warren Beatty, Bo Goldman)
The Birth of a Nation (Nate Parker)
Paterson (Jim Jarmusch)
I, Daniel Blake (Paul Laverty) NEWLONG SHOTS
The Comedian (Richard LaGravenese, Lewis Friedman, Art Linson, Jeffrey Ross) NEW
Allied (Steven Knight)
Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
Zootopia (Jared Bush, Phil Johnston)
Cafe Society (Woody Allen) -
Best Animated Feature
FRONTRUNNERS
Zootopia (Disney)
Moana (Disney)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Focus Features)
Finding Dory (Pixar) [pictured above]
My Life As a Zucchini (GKIDS)MAJOR THREATS
The Little Prince (Netflix)
Sausage Party (Sony Animation)
The Red Turtle (Sony Classics)
Trolls (DreamWorks Animation)
April and the Extraordinary World (GKIDS)POSSIBILITIES
Sing (Illumination/Universal)
Kung Fu Panda 3 (DreamWorks Animation)
The Secret Life of Pets (Illumination/Universal)
Long Way North (Shout!)LONG SHOTS
Miss Hokusai (GKIDS)
Ice Age: Collision Course (Fox Animation)
The Angry Birds Movie (Sony Animation)
Storks (Warner Bros.)
Phantom Boy (GKIDS) -
Best Documentary Feature
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
O.J.: Made in America (ESPN)
I Am Not Your Negro (Magnolia)
Cameraperson (Janus Films)
Fire at Sea (Kino Lorber)
Weiner (Sundance Selects/Showtime Documentary Films)
Life, Animated (The Orchard)
Gleason (Amazon/Open Road) [pictured above]
13th (Netflix)
The Eagle Huntress (Sony Classics)
Tower (Kino Lorber)
The Ivory Game (Netflix)
Miss Sharon Jones! (Starz)
Hooligan Sparrow (The Film Collaborative)
Off the Rails (The Film Collaborative)
The Witness (FilmRise)POSSIBILITIES
First Monday in May (Magnolia)
Tickled (Magnolia)
Kate Plays Christine (Grasshopper Film)
Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You (Music Box)
Zero Days (Magnolia/Showtime Documentary Films)
Audrie & Daisy (Netflix)
We Are X (Drafthouse)
Newtown (Abramorama)
By Sidney Lumet (Augusta Films/American Masters)
Holy Hell (CNN)
Marathon: The Patriots Day Bombing (HBO Films)
Author: The JT Leroy Story (Amazon)
The Music of Strangers (The Orchard)
Defying the Nazis: The Sharps' War (PBS)
Presenting Princess Shaw (Magnolia)
Into the Inferno (Netflix)
Amanda Knox (Netflix)
Mapplethorpe: Look at the Pictures (HBO Films)
De Palma (A24)
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week (Hulu/Abramorama)
Mavis! (HBO)LONG SHOTS
Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (IMAX)
Trapped (Abramorama)
Before the Flood (National Geographic)
Nuts! (mTuckman Media)
The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography (TBD)
Eat That Question: Frank Zappa in His Own Words (Sony Classics)
Lo and Behold, Reveries of the Connected World (Magnolia)
Justin Timberlake + The Tennessee Kids (Netflix)
Everything Is Copy (HBO Films)
California Typewriter (TBD)
Command and Control (PBS)
Do Not Resist (Vanish Films)
Chasing Trane (TBD)
Be Here Now (TBD)
Under the Gun (Lionsgate)
Harry Benson: Shoot First (Magnolia)
Nothing Left Unsaid: Gloria Vanderbilt & Anderson Cooper (HBO Films)
The Seasons in Quincy: Four Portraits of John Berger (Icarus Films) -
Best Foreign Language Film
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Fire at Sea (Italy)
Elle (France)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (Finland)
A Man Called Ove (Sweden)
Land of Mine (Denmark)
Julieta (Spain)
The Idol (Palestine) [pictured above]
Ma' Rosa (Philippines)MAJOR THREATS
Afterimage (Poland)
The Salesman (Iran)
Neruda (Chile)
The Ardennes (Belgium)
From Afar (Venezuela)
My Life As a Zucchini (Switzerland)
Desierto (Mexico)
Sand Storm (Israel)
Paradise (Russia)
Sieranevada (Romania)
Nagasaki: Memories of My Son (Japan)
House of Others (Georgia)
Under the Shadow (United Kingdom)
Tonio (Netherlands)POSSIBILITIES
Chevalier (Greece)
Tanna (Australia)
Interrogation (India) NEW
Call Me Thief (South Africa)
Alias Maria (Colombia)
Clash (Egypt)
Stefan Zweig: Farewell to Europe (Austria)
The Flower of Aleppo (Tunisia)
Death in Sarajevo (Bosnia & Herzegovina)
The Companion (Cuba)
The Distinguished Citizen (Argentina)
It's Only the End of the World (Canada)LONG SHOTS
Mother (Estonia)
Very Big Shot (Lebanon) NEW
Apprentice (Singapore)
Losers (Bulgaria)
On the Other Side (Croatia)
Kills on Wheels (Hungary)
Barakah Meets Barakah (Saudi Arabia)
Train Driver's Diary (Serbia)
Seneca's Day (Lithuania)
Home Sweet Home (Kosovo)
The Black Hen (Nepal)
Raftan (Afghanistan) -
Best Cinematography
FRONTRUNNERS
The Jungle Book (Bill Pope) [pictured above]
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (John Toll)
La La Land (Linus Sandgren)
Silence (Rodrigo Prieto)
Moonlight (James Laxton)MAJOR THREATS
Live By Night (Robert Richardson)
Rules Don't Apply (Caleb Deschanel)
The Happiest Day in the Life of Olli Maki (JP Passi)
Lion (Grieg Fraser)
Arrival (Bradford Young)
Hacksaw Ridge (Simon Duggan)
Hell or High Water (Giles Nuttgens)POSSIBILITIES
Sully (Tom Stern)
Cafe Society (Vittorio Storaro)
The BFG (Janusz Kaminski)
Knight of Cups (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Hail, Caesar! (Roger Deakins)
A Monster Calls (Oscar Faura)
Gold (Robert Elswit)LONG SHOTS
The Birth of a Nation (Elliot Davis)
Voyage of Time: The IMAX Experience (Paul Atkins)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Grieg Fraser)
Allied (Don Burgess)
Jackie (Stephane Fontaine)
Nocturnal Animals (Seamus McGarvey)
Passengers (Rodrigo Prieto)
Hidden Figures (Mandy Walker) -
Best Costume Design
FRONTRUNNERS
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Love & Friendship (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
Jackie (Madeline Fontaine)
Allied (Joanna Johnston) [pictured above]
Captain Fantastic (Courtney Hoffman)MAJOR THREATS
La La Land (Mary Zophres)
Hidden Figures (Renee Ehrlich Kalfus)
Rules Don't Apply (Albert Wolsky)
Live By Night (Jacqueline West)
Fences (Sharen Davis)POSSIBILITIES
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Colleen Atwood)
Loving (Erin Benach)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Colleen Atwood)
The Girl on the Train (Michelle Matland, Ann Roth)
The BFG (Joanna Johnston)LONG SHOTS
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Colleen Atwood)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (David Crossman, Glyn Dillon)
The Dressmaker (Marion Boyce, Margot Wilson)
Cafe Society (Suzy Benzinger)
Kubo and the Two Strings (Deborah Cook) NEW -
Best Film Editing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (Tom Cross)
Moonlight (Joi McMillon, Nat Sanders)
Lion (Alexandre de Francheschi) [pictured above]
Silence (Thelma Schoonmaker)
Hell or High Water (Jake Roberts)MAJOR THREATS
Hacksaw Ridge (John Gilbert)
Live By Night (William Goldenberg)
The Jungle Book (Mark Livolsi)
Manchester by the Sea (Jennifer Lame)
The Birth of a Nation (Steven Rosenblum)
Passengers (Maryann Brandon)POSSIBILITIES
Sully (Blu Murray)
Passengers (Maryann Brandon)
The BFG (Michael Kahn)
Jackie (Sebastian Sepulveda)
Fences (Hughes Winborne)LONG SHOTS
Hidden Figures (Peter Teschner)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Jabez Olssen)
Allied (Jeremiah O’Driscoll)
Arrival (Joe Walker)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Tim Squyre) -
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story [pictured above]
A Monster Calls
Jackie
Hidden Figures
The BFG
Hacksaw Ridge
DeadpoolMAJOR THREATS
Silence
The Jungle Book
Live By Night
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar ChildrenPOSSIBILITIES
Suicide Squad
Fences
Rules Don't Apply
La La LandLONG SHOTS
Love & Friendship
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War -
Best Original Score
FRONTRUNNERS
Hidden Figures (Hans Zimmer, Pharrell Williams, Benjamin Wallfisch)
La La Land (Justin Hurwitz)
Lion (Dustin O'Halloran, Hauschka)
The BFG (John Williams)
Moana (Opetaia Foa'l, Mark Mancina, Lin Manuel Miranda)MAJOR THREATS
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Michael Giacchino)
Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk (Mychael Danna, Jeff Danna)
The Jungle Book (John Debney)
Hacksaw Ridge (Rupert Gregson-Williams)
Manchester by the Sea (Lesley Barber) [pictured above]
The Birth of a Nation (Henry Jackman)
Moonlight (Nicholas Britell)POSSIBILITIES
Denial (Howard Shore)
Passengers (Thomas Newman)
Jackie (Micachu)
Zootopia (Michael Giacchino)
Fences (Marcelo Zarvos)
Live By Night (Harry Gregson-Williams)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (James Newton Howard)LONG SHOTS
Allied (Alan Silvestri)
Arrival (Johann Johannson)
Queen of Katwe (Alex Heffes)
The Girl on the Train (Danny Elfman)
Snowden (Craig Armstrong, Adam Peters)
Nocturnal Animals (Abel Korzeniowski)
The Little Prince (Richard Harvey, Hans Zimmer) -
Best Original Song
FRONTRUNNERS
"City of Stars" (La La Land) — Ryan Gosling
"Audition" (La La Land) — Emma Stone
"Dancing with Your Shadow" (Po) — Burt Bacharach
"We Know the Way" (Moana) — Lin Manuel Miranda
"Letters to the Free" (13th) — CommonMAJOR THREATS
"Can’t Stop the Feeling!" (Trolls) — Justin Timberlake
"Running" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
"The Great Beyond" (Sausage Party) — Alan Menken, Chris Lennertz [pictured above]
"I'm Still Here" (Miss Sharon Jones) — Sharon Jones
"Go Now" (Sing Street) — Adam Levine
"Victory" (Hidden Figures) — Pharrell Williams
"A Minute to Breathe" (Before the Flood) — Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
"Flicker" (Audrie & Daisy) — Tori AmosPOSSIBILITIES
"Start a Fire" (La La Land) — John Legend
"The Rules Don't Apply" (Rules Don't Apply) — Eddie Arkin, Lorraine Feather
"Hoping and Healing" (Gleason) — Mike McCready
"Angel by the Wings" (The Eagle Huntress) — Sia
"Try Everything" (Zootopia) — Shakira
"Faith" (Sing) — Stevie Wonder, Ryan Tedder, Francis Farewell Starlite
"Set It Free" (Sing) — Scarlett JohanssonLONG SHOTS
"The Veil" (Snowden) — Peter Gabriel
"Friends" (Angry Birds Movie) — Blake Shelton [pictured above]
"The Empty Chair" (The James Foley Story) — J. Ralph, Sting
"Just Like Fire" (Alice Through the Looking Glass) — Pink
"I'm So Humble" (Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping) — Adam Levine
"Down with Mary" (Too Late) — John Hawkes -
Best Production Design
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land (David Wasco)
Silence (Dante Ferretti)
Hacksaw Ridge (Barry Robison)
Jackie (Jean Rabasse)
Hidden Figures (Wynn Thomas) [pictured above]MAJOR THREATS
The Jungle Book (Christopher Glass)
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (Doug Chiang, Neil Lamont)
Allied (Gary Freeman)
Rules Don't Apply (Jeannine Oppewall)
The BFG (Rick Carter)
A Monster Calls (Eugenio Caballero)
Passengers (Guy Hendrix Dyas)POSSIBILITIES
Arrival (Patrice Vermette)
Live By Night (Jess Gonchor)
The Birth of a Nation (Geoffrey Kirkland)
Love & Friendship (Anna Rackard)
Gold (Maria Djurkovic)
Hail, Caesar! (Jess Gonchor)LONG SHOTS
The Neon Demon (Elliott Hostetter)
Alice Through the Looking Glass (Dan Hennah)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (Stuart Craig)
Miss Peregrine’s Home for Peculiar Children (Gavin Boxquet)
The Little Prince (Celine Desrumaux, Lou Romano)
Trolls (Kendal Cronkhite) NEW -
Best Sound Editing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Patriots DayMAJOR THREATS
Sully
Deepwater Horizon
Allied [pictured above]
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime WalkPOSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFGLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse -
Best Sound Mixing
FRONTRUNNERS
La La Land
Hacksaw Ridge
The Jungle Book
Passengers
Patriots DayMAJOR THREATS
Sully [pictured above]
Deepwater Horizon
Allied
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime WalkPOSSIBILITIES
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Deadpool
Zootopia
Hell or High Water
The BFGLONG SHOTS
Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
Captain America: Civil War
Jason Bourne
Independence Day: Resurgence
X-Men: Apocalypse -
Best Visual Effects
PROJECTED SHORTLIST
The Jungle Book
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
Doctor Strange
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
A Monster Calls
Passengers [pictured above]
Star Trek Beyond
Deadpool
The BFG
SullyMAJOR THREATS
Deepwater Horizon
10 Cloverfield Lane
Arrival
Jason BournePOSSIBILITIES
Captain America: Civil War
Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
Alice Through the Looking GlassLONG SHOTS
Suicide Squad
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
X-Men: Apocalypse -
Best Documentary Short
FRONTRUNNERS
Joe’s Violin (Lucky Two Productions)
The White Helmets (Grain Media and Violet Films)
Extremis (f/8 Filmworks in association with Motto Pictures) [pictured above]
4.1 Miles (University of California, Berkeley)
Close Ties (Munk Studio – Polish Filmmakers Association)MAJOR THREATS
Watani: My Homeland (ITN Productions)
Frame 394 (Compy Films)
The Mute's House (The Jerusalem Sam Spiegel Film School)
The Other Side of Home (Feeln)
Brillo Box (3¢ Off) (Brillo Box Documentary)
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