In his third season, Bruno Caboclo remains a mysterious project

NBA players are well compensated, to be sure. Still, so long as you understand the concepts of relativism and a fixed market, you can comprehend how important cheap labour can be to teams that have to navigate life in a salary-capped world.

This is why, except in the cases of the most obvious of busts, the third- and fourth-year options of rookie contracts tend to be exercised for players picked late in the first round. Those options represent real money, and they can eat into cap space if you have grand plans to make a splash. On the scale of commitments a team can make to a player, they are low-risk, high-reward. You devote a small percentage of the cap and a roster spot to a player you hope can eventually become a bigger contributor.

Bruno Caboclo blows up all of that logic, because his “two years away from being two years away” case is unique. The Raptors were always playing the long game with Caboclo, the 20th-overall pick from the 2014 Draft who was so off of the radar that Adam Silver butchered his name at the podium. It was a given that Caboclo would be in the D-League for the first two years, as his prior level of experience was just so low.

Hopefully, with time and patience and a lot of coaching, Caboclo would carve out a niche with his absurd wingspan, and grow into a good investment. Yet, here we are at the start of his third year with the Raptors, and we are not any clearer on what Caboclo could be, nevermind where he will end up.

“I don’t think we are, and that’s unfortunate,” said Raptors assistant coach Jama Mahlalela, the man who ran Caboclo through drills in his initial post-draft workout. “I think we would have wanted to have a clearer idea, saying this is who you are, this is how you’re going to play for us and how you’re going to be successful. And I think that’s still not defined: one by the way he plays, and also by our system.”

Yet, as Halloween, when the Raptors have to decide whether to pick up the nearly $3-million option on Caboclo’s fourth season, approaches, this experiment is not close to done.

“He shows flashes every so often of being this really complete driver and defender and shot-blocker,” said David Gale, an assistant coach with Raptors 905, the D-League team with whom Caboclo spent most of his second season. “Sometimes, you’re like, ‘S—, this guy could be really special.’”

Therein lies the rub — Caboclo is both a scintillating prospect and unplayable at the NBA level. At some point, you can no longer invest in promise. The Raptors will have to determine when that is, and it seems unlikely that it will be in the next 10 days.

Caboclo’s D-League statistics from last year do not tell a meaningful story. He shot 40 percent from the field and 33 percent from 3-point distance, averaging 14.7 points and 6.5 rebounds in 35 games. However, there was little consistency there — Caboclo had an awful start to the year, before normalizing as his season progressed. Still, on offence, he could go from a 1-for-11 clunker one night to a 7-for-11 outing the next. There was little indication that it was just bad luck, either.

“You got to see why he needs to play: It’s more knowing when to shoot the ball, his decision making. If you really look back at it, he never played heavy minutes at any level,” said Gale, making subtle reference to Caboclo’s first season, when the Raptors did not have their own D-League affiliate and Caboclo got virtually no playing time. “Even in Brazil, he was always the young guy.

“I think it was decision making. Knowing when to shoot, knowing when to pass, what’s a good shot, what’s a bad shot (are still works in progress). It’s a little bit mechanical. Working with (Jerry Stackhouse, Raptors 905 coach) a lot, he’s got certain things from him — keep the elbow in, follow through every time. There are inconsistencies in his shot every time. It’s just not the same shot every time. When he does have the consistency of shooting the same way every time, you see much better results.”

This is a lot of talk about offence given that Caboclo was largely taken as a defensive prospect. That is because his defensive upside, while still immense, has shifted in the Raptors’ perspective.

When he was drafted, Caboclo looked the part of a lanky wing defender. While his physical appearance, other than some added bulk, has not noticeably changed, the league has changed. The NBA has far more shooting and quickness on the floor at all times than it did just two years ago. That has changed the equation for every player but the purest and speediest of point guards. And that affects Caboclo’s path to production, too.

“His defensive ability is better at (power forward than on the wing), we feel,” Mahlalela said. “Those long arms that everyone spoke about when he was drafted, they actually play a role when he’s in pick-and-roll coverage as the (power forward). He’s got active arms. He can get deflections, which is big. It just puts him in a space where he can space out the floor, and other (power forwards) can’t contest his three as much.”

Gale mentioned that Caboclo’s lateral quickness is not quite what the Raptors would want, which limits his upside when defending quicker wing players.

“Because of his length, (power forward) will be the spot he fits in the best at,” Gale said. “We saw that last year that he would play guys that were stronger in the post. Because he was so long, he was still available to block shots even if he got backed down.”

Accordingly, the grand experiment carries on, with a slightly new expectation and focus. If Caboclo does not pan out, it is not the worst thing in the world — striking out on the 20th pick is not a massive sunk cost. However, looking back at that draft and focusing on who they could have selected (Rodney Hood and especially Clint Capela would make fine pieces right now) turns the Caboclo case from a cute diversion to something a little more serious.

There are stakes, now. Exercising his fourth-year option isn’t a huge dilemma, but whether or not to offer him a qualifying offer to retain his rights versus letting him become an unrestricted free agent after next season is a little more complex. The Raptors do not need him to be a rotation player yet, but urgency is creeping in. Gale mentioned that even though Caboclo spent most of his rookie season learning from the Raptors at the NBA level, that rarely translated in Mississauga.

“You’ve got to be the NBA player,” Gale said. “You can’t be the young D-League guy anymore.”