(Kitco News) - Gold prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading Thursday. A slightly downbeat U.S. weekly jobless claims report that showed a rise in claims is helping out the precious metals bulls. Some more chart-based buying is also seen as prices have scored an upside “breakout” from a near-term trading range on the daily chart. December Comex gold was last up $2.70 an ounce at $1,272.60. December Comex silver was last up $0.033 at $17.635 an ounce.
Gold is also benefitting from likely better consumer demand coming from India in the coming weeks due to India’s festival season.
The European Central Bank left its monetary policy unchanged at Thursday’s meeting, which was what the marketplace expected. ECB President Mario Draghi will hold a press conference following the ECM meeting. The marketplace does look for the ECB to make monetary policy changes in December.
Gains in the precious metals are being limited Thursday by crude oil prices that are under a bit of profit-taking pressure from recent gains that saw prices hit a three-month high in Nymex futures Wednesday. The other key “outside market” sees the U.S. dollar index slightly weaker today.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Philadelphia Fed business survey, leading economic indicators, and existing home sales.
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Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating: 2.5 (Trader and investor market risk aversion is not elevated today.)
(Wyckoff’s Daily Risk Rating is your way to quickly gauge investor risk appetite in the world market place each day. Each day I assess the “risk-on” or “risk-off” trader mentality in the market place with a numerical reading of 1 to 5, with 1 being least risk-averse (most risk-on) and 5 being the most risk-averse (risk-off).
Technically, December gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage but bulls are having a good week. Bulls’ next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,300.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $1,243.20. First resistance is seen at $1,275.00 and then at $1,280.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,268.70 and then at Wednesday’s low of $1,261.10. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0
December silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing futures prices above solid technical resistance at $18.46 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is at last week’s high of $17.855 and then at $18.04. Next support is seen at $17.45 and then at last week’s low of $17.315. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
By Jim Wyckoff, contributing to Kitco News; jwyckoff@kitco.com
