Here are the must-see movies most likely to win Oscars in 2017

La La Land Lionsgate
Lionsgate

With film festivals like Telluride, Venice, and Toronto behind us, and the New York Film Festival underway in October, award season is becoming clearer. Which means it's (already) time for Oscar predictions.

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The 2017 Academy Awards will be filled with familiar faces like Martin Scorsese and Meryl Streep and newcomers to the season like Mahershala Ali (Remy from "House of Cards") and Ruth Negga (Tulip from "Preacher").

At least, that's how things seem to stand at the moment. 

Award-season bets are constantly changing, with "sure things" suddenly falling off the board once the movie starts making the rounds to voters. And underdogs can find their way in as we get to the Oscar voting deadline at the end of December.

Here's our first pass at the movies and talent that have a chance to take home Oscar gold:

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Best Picture

La La Land
"La La Land." Lionsgate

In the running:

“Arrival”
“Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
“Jackie”
“La La Land”
“Manchester By The Sea”
“Moonlight”
“Silence”
“Sully”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: "La La Land." The movie is a love letter to the forgotten musical (remember, most of the Academy voters are on the older side), the creativity of the story by writer-director Damien Chazelle is incredible, and the performances by Ryan Gosling and Emma Stone are some of the best of the year. 

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Best Director

Damien Chazelle Vitto Zunino Coletto Getty
Damien Chazelle. Vitto Zunino Coletto/Getty

In the running:

Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Garth Davis, “Lion”
Clint Eastwood, “Sully”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester By The Sea”
Nate Parker, “The Birth of a Nation”
Martin Scorsese, “Silence”
Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: Damien Chazelle for "La La Land." Like I mentioned in best picture, Chazelle weaves a powerful story about love and loss. His creative eye and strong storytelling will make him hard to beat. Plus the Academy loved his previous movie "Whiplash."

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Best Actor

casey affleck manchest by the sea amazon
Casey Affleck in "Manchester By The Sea." Amazon

In the running:

Casey Affleck, “Manchester By The Sea”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”
Tom Hanks, “Sully”
Michael Keaton, “The Founder”
Matthew McConaughey, “Gold”
Nate Parker, “The Birth of a Nation”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: Casey Affleck. His performance in "Manchester By the Sea" is emotionally charged while being very subdued. Affleck has shown he's capable of carrying a film in the past, but in this one he is the film.

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Best Actress

la la land emma stone
Emma Stone in "La La Land." YouTube/Lionsgate

In the running:

Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Amy Adams, “Nocturnal Animals”
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Rebecca Hall, “Christine”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: This category is shaping up to be a very competitive one this year with numerous deserving winners. But at the moment I have to give it to Emma Stone for "La La Land." Portman as Jackie Kennedy in "Jackie" is a very close second, but with Portman already having won an Oscar, voters may lean more toward Stone, who gives a fantastic performance in her own right.

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Best Supporting Actor

Michael Shannon Nocturnal Animals Focus Features
Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals." Focus Features

In the running:

Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Ralph Fiennes, “A Bigger Splash”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Liam Neeson, “Silence”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: Again, another tough category. At the moment, we have to go with Michael Shannon in "Nocturnal Animals." His performance in many ways saves the movie with the comic relief he brings.

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Best Supporting Actress

naomie harris moonlight a24 copy
Naomi Harris in "Moonlight." A24

In the running:

Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Felicity Jones, “A Monster Calls”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Rachel Weisz, “The Lobster”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester By the Sea”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: Naomi Harris in "Moonlight." Harris' role as a drug-addicted mother is ugly, sad, and infuriating. Harris gives a charged performance that certainly should be recognized.

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Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water CBS Films
"Hell or High Water." CBS Films

In the running:

Anthony Bagarozzi, Shane Black, “The Nice Guys”
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Efthymis Filippou, Yorgos Lanthimos, “The Lobster”
Jim Jarmusch, “Paterson”

Barry Jenkins, Tarell McCraney, “Moonlight”

Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”

Noah Oppenheim, “Jackie”

Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: Taylor Sheridan for "Hell or High Water." Sheridan (also known for writing "Sicario") delivers a soon-to-be classic modern Western that features an incredibly clever plot and some of the best dialogue I've heard all year.

 

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Best Adapted Screenplay

lion the weinstein company
"Lion." The Weinstein Company

In the running:

Seo-Kyung Chung, Chan-wook Park, “The Handmaiden”
Jay Cocks, “Silence”
Luke Davies, “Lion”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Whit Stillman, “Love & Friendship”
August Wilson, “Fences”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: My heart is with "The Handmaiden," but I could see it going to Luke Davies for "Lion." The look at a man trying to find the birth parents he lost as a child is a memorable work. 

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Best Animated Feature

zootopia
"Zootopia." Walt Disney Animation

In the running:

“Finding Dory”
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“The Red Turtle”
“Sing”
“Zootopia”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: "Zootopia." Not only because it's extremely entertaining but because its message is so important right now in the country (and likely come Oscar night). And it doesn't hurt that it made a ton of money.

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Best Cinematography

billy lynn final
"Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk." YouTube/Sony

In the running:

James Laxton, “Moonlight”
Seamus McGarvey, “Nocturnal Animals”
Linus Sandgren, “La La Land”
John Toll, “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
Bradford Young, “Arrival”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: This is going to be a really competitive year in this category, too. If I had to choose today, I'd have to give it to John Toll for "Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk" for the simple fact of the ambitious way it was done.

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Best Documentary

oj made in america espn
"O.J.: Made In America." ESPN

In the running:

“13th”
“The Eagle Huntress”
“Gleason”
“Into the Inferno”
“Life, Animated”
“Miss Sharon Jones!”
“O.J.: Made In America”
“Weiner”

If the Oscars were handed out today the winner would be: There are so many great documentaries this year, but nothing compares to the craftsmanship, research, and viewing experience of "O.J.: Made in America." Director Ezra Edelman has made something that will be talked about long after this award season.

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