Assad and Putin to launch ‘full scale’ assault to secure victory in Aleppo

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Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a huge counterattack on rebels in east Aleppo to take the city for good as early as this week, reports say.

Russia dispatched its largest military surface deployment since the Cold War two weeks ago - which included eight warships and the country’s only aircraft carrier - which are due to arrive at the Syrian Mediterranean city of Latakia as soon as Wednesday.

Nato intelligence said at the time, and a Western intelligence source confirmed to The Times on Monday, that they expect a “crescendo of air attacks on Aleppo as part of Russia’s strategy to declare victory there.”

The expected assault - timed to coincide while the US is preoccupied with the general election on November 8 - comes after weeks of heavy aerial bombardment and a months-long siege which has left the 250,000 people trapped in the rebel-held area desperate for food, fuel and medical supplies.

“We think that the Russians are on the brink of a major military assault on Aleppo,” an intelligence source told The Times. “There could be significant humanitarian consequences.”

Mr Assad launched a renewed attack on the estimated 8,000 fighters left in east Aleppo in September. The unprecedented bombing, aided by Russian-manufactured illegal munitions such as cluster bombs, white phosphorous and ‘bunker busters’, has been some of the bloodiest of Syria’s almost six-year-long conflict, leaving more than 500 people dead.

East Aleppo is the last major urban stronghold of the official Syrian opposition. Retaking it would greatly shift the balance towards the regime, bolstering Mr Assad’s position sufficiently to allow Russia to begin a military exit from the war, observers say.

Russia’s parliament voted to assist the Syrian regime militarily in September 2015. Since then, Moscow has deployed around 30 jets to its airbase near Latakia, as well as air-defence systems in a show of strength to Western powers.

On Sunday it was reported that three Russian submarines armde with cruise missiles - two Akula-class submarines and a diesel-powered Kilo-class sub - were also part of the deployment. Russian Foreign Ministry official Andrei Kelin dismissed fears that the vessels will be used in a renewed attack on Aleppo as "absurd."

The recent renewed campaign on Aleppo has been condemned as a war crime by the UN and Western governments, many of whom have drawn parallels with Grozny, the capital of the Chechen Republic, which was besieged by Russia between 1999 - 2000.

The Kremlin announced a three-day ‘humanitarian pause’ in Aleppo last week, designed to allow rebels and civilians to leave the siege barricades for neighbouring rebel-held Idlib province under an amnesty. The truce was rejected by the opposition, and in some cases the civilian population were prevented from leaving by mortar fire targeting checkpoints into west Aleppo.

The rebels launched a huge counter-attack against the regime army and allied Shiite militias on Saturday. Rebel sources report that they have been successful in repelling regime troops from the neighbourhood of Assad, but state media has contradicted the claims.

The UN’s special envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, said he was “appalled and shocked” by rebel tactics, which have included “indiscriminate” rocket attacks which have killed dozens of civilians in the last two days.

Earlier this month he warned that east Aleppo could face “total destruction” by Christmas and thousands more could die if the current assault on the city is not stopped.

“There is only one thing we are not ready to do: be passive, resign ourselves to another Srebrenica, another Rwanda, which we are sadly ready to recognise written on that wall in front of us, unless something takes place,” Mr de Mistura said.

So far diplomatic efforts to end the suffering of civilians have come to naught. Russia used its veto as a permanent member of the UN Security Council to block a UN resolution on a ceasefire on October 8.