Warcraft is not a game-changer, at least not yet. There has been talk over the last few days about how Warcraft is a sign of China’s eventual dominance in the realm of would-be Hollywood blockbusters, or that we may get a Warcraft sequel specifically tailored to Chinese audiences that may even forgo American theatrical release. But here’s the thing: While the Duncan Jones fantasy adventure ended up with a ton of money in what will soon be the biggest moviegoing marketplace, it didn’t do so in a way that inspires confidence in a sequel.
I know, I too was flabbergasted and excited back in June when the video game adaptation earned a gob-smacking $46 million on its first day in China, and then another $45m on its second day in China. It was the biggest two-day gross ever in said marketplace. But then… it just stopped. By the end of its five-day debut, Warcraft’s $46m opening day had become a $156m five-day weekend (and a $65.14m Fri-Sun frame). Yes, Sunday was a workday on that mid-June weekend, but that was still a lousy 3.39x five-day multiplier.
The film then dropped like a rock over the next month, ending its run with $220.8 million in China. That’s a big total number, but it was also massively frontloaded. It made 41% of its total in the first 48 hours of theatrical play. In North America, it was leggier in North America than it was in China. It earned $47.225m from a $28.3m Fri-Tues gross (1.66x) while Warcraft made $220.8m from a $156m Wed-Sun total (1.41x). And it was no leggier anywhere else in the world.
The $160 million production made 50% of its money in China alone, a territory that generally gives just 25% of the ticket sale back to the studios. And since it underperformed or bombed in much of the world (it did make $22m in Russia, $15m in Germany and $14m in France), I guess if you must make a Warcraft sequel you might as well tailor it to the one territory where audiences bothered to see it. But the lightning-fast descent should not be ignored. It’s an essential part of the story regarding what comes next.
Warcraft either played specifically to the fans of the game who raced out to see it in the first few days and no one else, or Warcraft wasn’t any more liked in China than it was in North America. I’d argue a combination of both. Now, to be fair, there are plenty of big franchises that play like that in North America, such as the current DC Films franchise and the likes of The Twilight Saga and the back half of the Harry Potter series.
But a theoretical Warcraft sequel that skews heavily to China and doesn’t play in other parts of the world is not a success but rather an admission of failure.
If Blizzard, Atlas and/or Universal/Comcast Corp. budgets the next Warcraft film in a way that it can be profitable by making the vast bulk of its money in the first 48 hours in China, then go for it. We cannot presume that a second Warcraft movie, even a better one, won’t suffer the fate of any number of “superior sequels to inferior originals” that vastly underperformed the second time out because audiences didn’t like what they saw. Yes, I am invoking the Tomb Raider Trap, and you should be too.
Warcraft was big in China because around half the world’s players come from China. Legendary was recently acquired by China’s Dalian Wanda Group and Wanda (China’s largest movie theater operator) helped put the film on tons of screens. Tencent, the owner of WeChat, was a key marketing player. It will be one of around 34 American films admitted this year for Chinese exhibition. If Premium Rush were one of only 34 movies playing in North America in 2012, I’d imagine Premium Rush would have done better in domestic theaters.
All of these advantages and the film still dropped like a stone once paying audiences got a look at it.
Yes, Warcraft made $220.8 million in China while only making $213m over the rest of the world combined. But it made that $220.8m at lightning speed, and there is no guarantee that a Chinese-tilted Warcraft 2 would A) make more than $220.8m in China or B) make significantly more in China so as to compensate for the various international markets in which it wouldn’t play. Unless it’s super cheap, it can’t just be a hit in China unless they make Furious 7 money.
20th Century Fox’s Ice Age franchise would be a safer bet for a direct-to-DVD domestic release than Warcraft 2 playing (almost) exclusively to China, but that’s for another day.
The idea that Warcraft was a zeitgeist-capturing mega-hit in terms of legs and popularity in China is something of a fallacy. It was no more embraced in China than it was in the rest of the world. It was instead a prime example of preordained awareness and somewhat manufactured interest creating an inflated opening which led to a collapse once the fans held their nose and exited the theater. They did the same with Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc.'s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice ($90 million from a $55m Fri-Sun debut) but at least that film did better around the world. Although it also made 40% ($132m) of its domestic total ($330m) in the first two days.
The idea that Warcraft was a sensation in China and that said “success” paints a grim picture for Hollywood is one not accounting for a lack of legs and the fan-driven opening. If Blizzard and friends want to make a Chinese-friendly Warcraft sequel and hope for the best, more power to them. But Warcraft’s lightning fast box office blitz only means audiences in China like the Worlds of Warcraft game and were excited to see a big-budget movie version.
That’s an entirely valid reason for pre-debut excitement. That’s no worthier of scorn than (for example) our embrace of Suicide Squad. Both would-be successes point to the value of making movies that feature “new to cinema” characters/properties. Yet, sometimes once is enough once the novelty wears off. It should it not be presumed that a Chinese-centric Warcraft 2 will do noticeably better in China than the last one did. Chinese moviegoers have taste as well. After all, Walt Disney's Zootopia made $235m in China this year.
