Fantasy Debate: Jeremy Hill vs. Jonathan Stewart
“Doctor? Doctor? Doctor?” In this rousing edition of ‘Spin Doctors,’ resident fantasy ‘spies’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza don stethoscopes and offer their diagnoses on mid-round rushers Jeremy Hill and Jonathan Stewart. Read each argument and declare a winner below.
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Evans hikes the Hill – After largely going as a top-10 back in drafts, Hill did his best Wil E. Coyote impersonation in 2015. Overly timid, rather stiff, easily assailable and demoralized by a brutal schedule, he plummeted off a cliff and bottomed out at RB22. If not for his 12 total touchdowns, he would’ve fared much, much worse. He experienced nosedives in yards per carry (’14: 5.1, ’15: 3.6), total yards (1,339, 873), tackles avoided per attempt (0.13, 0.11) and yards after contact (2.8, 2.0), puzzling downturns to say the least. His backbreaking fumble in the playoffs against rival Pittsburgh only exasperated the disappointment.
But wise investors will peel the rusher’s body off the canyon floor.
Hill is about to bounce back in a big way.
The young rusher showed signs of resurgence late last year. Including the playoffs, he netted 84.3 total yards per game and ripped off a pair of 38-yard scampers, his longest runs of the season. Over that stretch, he started to resemble the tackler-displacing, runaway train from his rookie campaign, evidenced in his 4.4 yards per carry and 2.4 yards after contact rate.
Though he’ll again battle Gio Benard for touches later this summer, Hill is a virtual lock for considerable early-down and virtually all goal-line work. Even if he undergoes slight improvement, he will morph again into a top-20 RB and turn a tidy profit at his current 69.7 (RB27) ADP. Keep in mind the Bengals ranked No. 1 in run-blocking last season and boast a noteworthy passing offense. Don’t expect the scheme to differentiate much under new OC Ken Zampese, who was QB coach for Cincy in 2015.
Here’s the deal with Stewart, he’s the McRib of fantasy football. When available during draft season, consumers go the extra mile to get a taste. Invariably, though, most come to the realization the extra effort for a highly processed mystery meat wasn’t worth it. J-Stew, after all, is perpetually dinged and has only finished inside the RB top-15 twice in eight seasons. Even last year, one of the Panther’s best fantasy seasons, he finished 21 spots lower than Hill in standard fantasy points per opportunity (0.43 vs. 0.34). And we can’t ignore the Cam Newton poach factor. Since the QB entered the league in 2011, Stewart has totaled 18 touchdowns, peaking at seven combined last fall.
This is hardly a debate folks.
Hill, who I’m projecting for at least 1,100 combined yards and 11-13 TDs, wins in a landslide.
Liz is on the prowl for the Panther – Released from the constraints of an RBBC, Stewart was set free in 2015. Staying on the field for 13 consecutive contests, the Panthers’ workhorse handled a career-high 242 totes. Averaging 4.1 YPC, Stewart churned out 1,088 total yards and 7 TDs, which was his best statistical showing since 2009. Before being shelved for the last three weeks of the regular season, JStew was the ninth best RB in FF. Despite missing Weeks 15-17, he still finished a high-end RB2, just outside of the top-fifteen overall producers at the position.
Admittedly, a 29-year-old back coming off of a foot injury with durability concerns isn’t an ideal candidate to lead one’s backfield. Yet, there’s very little depth and/or competition behind Stewart. And Carolina called the most rushing plays in 2015, which means the opportunities should be there for Stewart again in 2016. Even if the team’s passing volume goes up with the return of Kelvin Benjamin, Ron Rivera is never going to run a high-flying offense. Yes, Cam Newton might vulture his RBs at the goal line from time-to-time, but Stewarts’ value isn’t solely TD based.
Which brings me to Jeremy Hill. Those 11 TDs in 2015 sure helped disguise his woeful inefficiency. Averaging 3.6 YPC, Hill only managed 794 rushing yards on 223 carries. After contact the brutishly built back was downright awful, averaging fewer YAC (2.0) than the likes of Dexter McCluster and Alfred Blue. Entering 2016 without Hue Jackson calling the plays, Hill’s usage is up in the air. His poor showing last season left the door open for committee mate Giovanni Bernard, who churned out 329 more combined yards on 20 fewer touches.
Currently being selected as the No. 51 and No. 53 overall picks on draft boards, Stewart and Hill cost virtually the same amount. Given their identical price tags, I’d rather have the consistent production of Stewart than the TD guessing game that Hill presents. In standard scoring leagues, Stewart averaged over 11 fantasy points per game and never provided owners with fewer than five FPTs in a contest. Hill, on the hand, averaged fewer FPTS/game and handed managers fewer than three FPTS on five separate occasions.
It is likely that Stewart will break down at some point next season and force fake footballers to comb the waiver wire for a replacement. But until then, owners are pretty much guaranteed 10 FPTS per week, especially when factoring in a favorable strength of schedule. Considering he’s currently pricing out as a low-end RB2/high-end RB3, that’s solid production… which is much more than one can say for the question marks surrounding Hill.
SEE ALSO: Kirk Cousins vs. Matt Ryan
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