ALL eyes will be on Henrik Stenson at the PGA Championship, the last of the year’s four major men’s golf tournaments, which began on July 28th in Springfield, New Jersey. At the British Open two weeks before he led a men’s field by the biggest margin since 1955. But EAGLE (Economist Advantage in Golf Likelihood Estimator), our new golf prediction system, is unimpressed. Based on data from 450,000 holes played in past tournaments, it thinks Mr Stenson has only a 5.0% chance of winning. Instead—though he is under the weather at the moment—it favours the victor of last year’s PGA, Jason Day (above), giving him a 10.5% chance of defending his title. You can follow EAGLE’s projected win probabilities, updated every 15 minutes during the event, at economist.com/eagle.
