The Pittsburgh Steelers and Jacksonville Jaguars meet for the second time this season in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. The Steelers are seven-point favorites, the same as where the line opened. It had moved as high as 7.5 before falling back.
The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is unchanged from the opener of 41. The total had fallen as low a 40.5 before moving back to the opener.
Before you make any bets on Jaguars-Steelers, you need to see what SportsLine expert Galin Dragiev has to say.
Last week, Dragiev nailed Tennessee +8.5, Buffalo +9, and Atlanta as an outright underdog winner at +250 on the money line. On Saturday, he correctly said the Patriots would cover a nearly two-touchdown spread against the Titans.
Amazingly, that extended his run to 14-2 on NFL picks. Anyone who has followed his advice is way, way up.
Part of his success: Dragiev learned early on to predict the outcome of the game before determining how success trickles down to individual players, so he spent more time studying team outcomes than projecting individual players. When it comes to predictions, he trusts numbers above all else.
Now, he has examined every angle, every matchup and every trend in Jaguars vs. Steelers and locked in his pick. You can only see it over at SportsLine.
Dragiev knows that the last time the Steelers and Jaguars met, QB Ben Roethlisberger said after the game, "Maybe I don't have it anymore" and retirement rumors ran wild.
Roethlisberger threw a career-high five interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns as the Jaguars' fierce defense keyed a 30-9 victory. Roethlisberger was sacked twice and had a QB rating of 37.8.
On the other side of the ball, Jags RB Leonard Fournette ran for almost 200 yards and two scores. The Jaguars out-rushed Pittsburgh 231-70.
SportsLine's advanced projection model is again calling for a productive day for Fournette, who will have over 100 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in the rematch.
The Jags' defense comes into Sunday's NFL Playoff game having allowed 18 total points in its previous two games. They've held the Texans, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, Bengals, Browns, Texans, and Bills to single-digit points this season. Meanwhile, the Steelers have only held three teams to fewer than 10.
But just because the Jaguars dismantled the Steelers the first time around doesn't mean they can keep it within the spread or pull off another stunner on Sunday.
The Steelers have topped 30 points four times in the last seven games, while the Jaguars have struggled offensively.
Blake Bortles has thrown one touchdown pass against two interceptions the last two weeks. And in the first Jags-Steelers game, he completed just eight passes and didn't top 100 yards.
On Wild Card Weekend, Jacksonville squeaked by a Bills team whose workhorse, LeSean McCoy, appeared limited by an ankle injury; Bortles didn't top 90 yards passing in that game either.
The status of Brown (calf, illness) is up in the air. Brown is officially questionable and missed practice on Friday, but participated in the team's walk-through on Saturday. He has been sidelined since Week 15 and caught 10 passes for 157 yards against the Jaguars earlier this season. His return would be a huge boon to Pittsburgh's offense.
On Saturday, CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora Tweeted, "Continue to hear same thing on Antonio Brown as I did earlier today - he'll play and play regularly tomorrow."
How effective Brown will be if he takes the field remains to be seen.
SportsLine's advanced projection model says Roethlisberger will throw for 250 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. If he plays, Brown has the best chance of finding the end zone through the air. Roethlisberger has over 1,000 yards passing the last three weeks combined, including a dazzling 506-yard effort against the Ravens, the third career 500-yard game.
Dragiev is leaning Over, but he knows there's a critical stat that determines which side of Jaguars-Steelers you need to be all over. He's only sharing it at SportsLine.
So what side of Jaguars vs. Steelers do you need to jump on in the AFC Divisional Round? Visit SportsLine now to see what critical stat determines which side of the spread prevails, all from an expert on a 14-2 run in NFL picks, and find out.
