Alongside The Post ($5.9 million on Friday) and Proud Mary (around $3m on Friday), Lionsgate opened The Commuter. The Studio Canal picture is yet another Jaume Collet-Serra-directed potboiler, again casting Liam Neeson as the Jimmy Stewart to his Alfred Hitchcock. Reviews were mixed (I liked it, but I love this director’s particular set of skills), and there just wasn’t much buzz for the train-set thriller. As such, the film earned an okay $4.56 million yesterday, including $700k in Thursday previews. That's not terrific, but it's frankly a little better than I hoped.
That’s about on par with the last Collett-Serra/Neeson thriller, the gritty Boston crime drama Run All Night, which earned $3.8m on Friday and $11m over its Fri-Sun debut weekend in March of 2015. We should see a decent $12.5m Fri-Sun/$14.5m Fri-Mon debut weekend. Lionsgate isn’t on the hook for much on this one, and even a final figure comparable to Run All Night ($26m) and the super-grim A Walk Among the Tombstones ($26m after a $12m debut in late 2014) would be relatively okay. But we’re a long way from opening The Grey to $19m or Non-Stop to $28m.
But the news wasn’t all glorious. Paddington 2, the best new movie of 2018 (yes, it’s mid-January, but it’s friggin awesome), isn’t quite going to reach the heights of its well-received predecessor. Sure, kid-targeted sequels usually make less than their predecessors. Alas, I was hoping the rapturous reviews (already third on the “most reviews for a 100% fresh release” list) would pick up the slack. Alas, the last-minute pick-up from Warner Bros./Time Warner Inc. (after Weinstein Company imploded), earned just $2.4 million on Friday, including $325k in Thursday previews.
That positions the kick-ass talking bear comedy for a $10.5 million Fri-Sun/$14m Fri-Mon debut weekend. However, while WB may not feel great about a $30m acquisition, the film itself has already earned $125m overseas, and WB deserves kudos for rescuing the modern classic from the Weinstein carnage. And if it is at least as leggy as the first one ($25m Fri-Mon/$76m domestic total), we’re still looking at a $45m total. The unexpected legs/strength of Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle (and The Greatest Showman) hurt this one. But I’m hopeful for legs since Paddington 2 is the best talking bear movie ever made (Winnie the Pooh can go straight to hell!).
