Although two packages have still to be awarded it is almost certain that the Premier League will see domestic broadcasters pay less than they did the last time the rights were auctioned.
The only other time the Premier League has had to deal with such a retreat was 15 years ago.
The Premier League has announced that Sky and BT have been awarded five of the seven domestic TV packages made available for the three seasons starting with 2019/20.
As for the two other packages the Premier League indicated that multiple bidders were interested although no deadline was given. It is thought that the initial bids on the two packages did not meet the Premier League's "reserve" price.
Premier League sells majority of British TV rights to games for $6 billion after failing to secure big rises seen in past 2 auctions. @RobHarrishttps://t.co/sbQtYukKlW pic.twitter.com/maZAjKJkmP
— AP Sports (@AP_Sports) February 13, 2018
The Premier League upped the inventory to 200 games per season from the 168 on offer as part of the current rights deals.
This time Sky has paid £3.579B ($5.010B) for 128 games per season at an average cost of £9.32M ($13.05M) per match. Under the existing contract, Sky pays £4.176B ($5.85B) to screen 126 games per season at an average cost of £11M ($15.5M) per game.
The cost to BT will be £885M ($1.239B) for 32 games at an average cost of £9.22M ($12.91M) per game. In the previous cycle, BT paid £960M ($1.363B) while broadcasting 42 games per season at an average cost of £7.6M ($10.7M) per game.
(Exchange rate $1.40 dollars to £)
BT's package is for the rights to broadcast the early Saturday matches while Sky retained the premium matches that were contained within four of the packages offered by the Premier League.
Three years ago the Premier League benefited hugely as a hungry BT bidder forced Sky to pay through the nose to protect its crown jewel.
The same dynamic was missing this time with BT making clear it could live without the Premier League if need be.
The two remaining packages comprise of 20 games each.
Package F
Matches per club: Max two; min. two
Kick-off times: All 20 matches from one Bank Holiday and one-midweek fixture programme
Package G
Matches per club: Max two; min. two
Kick-off times: All 20 matches from two-midweek fixture programmes
It is extremely unlikely that the two packages will come close to filling the gap. The shortfall compared to the present deal is £672M ($941M) over three seasons. Once the two final packages are settled the cost to an average Premier League team will be around £10M ($14m).
| PREMIER LEAGUE TV RIGHTS HISTORY | |||||
| Domestic rights total | Domestic per season | Change | |||
| Years | £ Ms | $Ms | £ Ms | $Ms | % |
| 1992/97 | £191 | $267 | £38 | $53 | |
| 1997/01 | £670 | $938 | £168 | $235 | 338% |
| 2001/04 | £1,200 | $1,680 | £400 | $560 | 139% |
| 2004/07 | £1,000 | $1,400 | £333 | $467 | -17% |
| 2007/10 | £1,700 | $2,380 | £567 | $793 | 70% |
| 2010/13 | £1,700 | $2,380 | £567 | $793 | 0% |
| 2013/16 | £3,000 | $4,200 | £1,000 | $1,400 | 76% |
| 2016/19 | £5,100 | $7,140 | £1,700 | $2,380 | 70% |
| 2019/22 | £4,464 | $6,250 | £1,488 | $2,083 | -12% |
(Note: The chart does not include the overseas rights nor highlights.)
At the end of last month, the BBC renewed a contract for the right to show highlights of the Premier League. The BBC committed to paying £211.5M ($296M) deal - up from the £204m ($286M) for the cycle from 2016/17 to the conclusion of 2018/19.
Breaking: @BBCSport retains the rights to show Premier League highlights for a further 3 years. Great news.
— Gary Lineker (@GaryLineker) January 30, 2018
After the final two packages are settled the focus will move to the overseas market. The first sale of overseas rights starting with the 1992/93 season generated £8M ($11.2M) per season. The last rights cycle produced over £1B ($1.4B) per season - up 45% on the 2013/16.
Some of the overseas rights holders already have extended deals in place. Included in this category is the US rights held by NBC until the end of the 2021/22 season.
NBC signs $1B deal to retain Premier League rights http://t.co/DQHqSr6Vlb
— Curt Pires (@CAPSportsGroup) August 11, 2015
In the months leading up to the auction, there was mounting speculation that tech giants such as Amazon, Facebook, Apple, and Twitter might flex some financial muscle but it did not happen.
Amazon, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube are all trying to outflank Netflix and traditional terrestrial TV channels. Are video-streaming rights to the English Premier League a turning point in this global media battle?https://t.co/EtBaXyzBRK via @jswartz & @barronsonline
— Hyoun Park (@hyounpark) February 2, 2018
None of the tech giants appear to have figured in the auction so far so we will have to wait and see if the two remaining packages entice any to test the waters.
Whether the Premier League will see domestic rights fee rebound three years from now will depend upon of the major tech players doing more than kicking the tires.
