Schmeelk: Mediocrity Would Doom The New-Look Knicks
By John Schmeelk
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There's no doubt Phil Jackson was already feeling the pressure as general manager after one historically bad season, and another that found the Knicks outside of the playoff race.
While impatient fans and some members of the media held his feet to the fire, there were the makings of a slow and patient build that could lead to something better later on.
Forward-thinking fans and still more media members saw a bright future of young players like Jerian Grant and draft picks growing alongside Kristaps Porzingis with the goal of competing for the Eastern Conference title once LeBron James stopped playing at a historic level.
Porzingis would enter his prime in about three years. By then the Knicks would have three more first-round picks, they could perhaps turn Carmelo Anthony into some assets on his way out the door, and the team would have a strong long-term outlook.
Now, all that is gone.
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The Knicks traded two under-30 assets for Derrick Rose, who, while just 27, has much older knees and just one year remaining on his contract. They signed 31-year-old Joakim Noah, who has a long injury history, and could be an untradeable asset if his play deteriorates enough. Courtney Lee should age more gracefully, but he will be 31 when the season starts. Brandon Jennings is on a one-year deal as well.
Anthony is the Knicks best players and is on the wrong side of 30. His last season was encouraging coming off fairly serious knee surgery, but it is fair to wonder how much great basketball he has left in his body. He has three years left on his contract, which now looks like a fairly decent bargain, but can opt out after two.
That's not to say you can't build for the future with your draft picks while trying to win today, because you can. In fact, that seems to be Jackson's plan. He wants to try to take advantage of Anthony's three-year window, while at the same time setting the team up in a decent way for when Porzingis is ready to be the team's alpha dog. But riding the middle lane is very difficult and it seems to be Phil's goal.
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Even with the glimpse of the long term in place, the Knicks are going to be judged by one thing, and one thing alone, following this free-spending offseason: wins. The goal should be 50 of them, and a top three seed in the Eastern Conference. Anything far short of either one of those goals and the season will be a failure.
Getting the 3 seed would help the Knicks avoid the Cavaliers in the second round of the playoffs, giving them a realistic chance to get to the Eastern Conference finals. Winning one playoff round only to get whacked by LeBron in the second round would be a disappointing season. Losing to him in the conference finals would be an excellent step in the right direction for a franchise that has struggled with relevancy.
The worst place the Knicks can wind up, and it's no different for any other NBA team, is no-man's land. If the Knicks win 42-47 games next year, get the 6 or 7 seed and lose in the first round of the playoffs, Jackson will have put this franchise in a terrible position to develop into a championship-caliber team. His plan would be darn close to belly-up before it even had a chance to get started.
What's more, 45 wins puts the team outside the Draft Lottery, with a small chance to find an elite player in the late teens. A team coming off earning the 6 seed and losing in the first round of the playoffs also won't be very attractive for free agents next summer when the Knicks could be in the market for a star player on a max deal. It is the worst possible scenario and it needs to be avoided at all costs.
Unfortunately, there's a decent shot the Knicks fall exactly there.
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Rather than finishing in no-man's land, the Knicks would be far better off long term if Rose and Noah both get hurt or play awful basketball, and finish in the low 30s in wins. That would give them a top 10 pick and a decent chance to move up in the Lottery and find Porzingis his future running mate in the draft.
Either be really good, or really bad. The middle ground helps no one in the short or long term. (Except Jim Dolan, who would likely use a first-round playoff exit as an excuse to raise ticket prices on his loyal season ticket holder base)
A crash back into the lottery could very well cost Jackson his job. He is staking his career on Rose and Noah reviving their past glory. There's a legitimate shot that doesn't happen. In fact, it's likely. There's a smaller chance the Knicks bottom out completely. But the Knicks, as a franchise, would be far better off with that result than barely making the playoffs and getting embarrassed by a superior team in the first round.
For the first time in a couple of years, it's all about wins and losses for the Knicks. That's what matters now. It's very simple to judge how they're doing and the job Jackson has done as team president.
It's all about the record. Be really good, or really bad. Don't finish in the middle. That helps no one.
For all things Knicks, please follow John on Twitter at @Schmeelk
