Post Brexit, experts need to reassert their value to society

HOWEVER you feel about the result of the UK’s EU referendum, the campaign itself cannot have left anything other than a foul taste in the mouth. The willingness to bend, ignore or invent facts was depressing and shameful.

Both sides were up to it, but Leave told the biggest whoppers. And to the victors, the spoils. It is from their ranks that the next government will probably emerge, so their abuse of facts needs to be held to account.

Let us start with Michael Gove. Pressed in a Sky News interview about expert warnings on the economy, he glibly replied: “I think the people in this country have had enough of experts.”

Given that Gove is likely to land a big job in the next government, this claim is troubling. He was not saying “expert opinion is worthless”. But he was giving voters permission to dismiss it and trust their own instincts, in cynical pursuit of his own goals. If he is prepared to use this tawdry tactic in the most important UK vote in living memory, there are serious questions about how he will conduct himself in high office.

Similar questions also have to be asked about Boris Johnson, who refused to correct a false claim on the side of his campaign bus, even after being rebuked by the UK Statistics Authority.

Gove and Johnson probably don’t care; winning was all. But the fantasy world they seem intent on conjuring up is genuinely dangerous. Reality has a nasty habit of biting back.

Yes, experts can get it wrong. Economists in particular have a poor track record. But that is not a credible or rational reason for rubbishing all expertise.

Scientists and other experts are right to be dismayed. It must be tempting to walk away and laugh hollowly as reality takes its course. But that would be a mistake.

“The fantasy world of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove is dangerous. Reality has a nasty habit of biting back“

We can do better. Sadly, experts must take some of the blame for failing to get their message across. They relied too heavily on spelling out the evidence and scoring factual points – tactics that played straight into the hands of Leave.

For a debate as visceral as this, facts aren’t enough. Reams of research has shown that firmly held beliefs – especially those to do with cultural identity – are resilient to conflicting evidence. Trying to change someone’s mind by bombarding them with facts usually just makes them dig in. Emotion trumps reason.

Academics in general don’t get this. They expect facts and evidence to carry the day, and are left shaking their heads in disbelief when they don’t. The Remain campaign shared this assumption, and made little or no attempt to stir any emotion other than fear.

It was never going to work. Rightly or wrongly, many people felt that their national identity was under threat. That allowed Leave to push emotional buttons with slogans such as “take back control”. Irrational, yes. Vague, yes. But powerful.

The referendum is over, but the arguments are not. If experts want the debate to be fought in the real world, they need to learn to speak the emotional language of the victors.

That is unpalatable to many. It feels grubby, but it need not be. There were reasons to remain that were truthful and emotionally positive, such as the flowering of scientific collaboration that the EU enabled (see “Angry scientists must fight to pick up the pieces after Brexit“).

Democracy needs experts. And the ones it needs most right now are those who know how to speak truth not just to power, but to ordinary people. It is time for those on the side of rationality to take back control.

For more on the science of Brexit, read our special report

This article appeared in print under the headline “Take back control!”