Ecclesiastes reminds us that nothing is ever really new. "One generation passeth away, and another generation cometh: but the earth abideth for ever." Which is why we should not be surprised by signs of a Conservative Party revival.
In hubris, this writer once asserted that the Liberal Party was in danger of extinction. Not only was it an impoverished, leaderless third party at the national level in 2012, but Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia also appeared headed for defeat. Everywhere else, outside Prince Edward Island, either the Conservatives or NDP dominated.
With two different books on the stands arguing that only a Liberal/NDP merger could derail the Stephen Harper juggernaut, the future of the party of Laurier seemed precarious.
Vanity of vanities …
Today, there is not a Conservative Party by that name in power federally or provincially. Tory fortunes have rarely been at a lower ebb.
But as everyone, including this writer, keeps forgetting, politics is cyclical. Hello, Manitoba.
Two weeks into the provincial election there, Brian Pallister's Conservatives are more than 20 points ahead of Greg Selinger's NDP. If the numbers hold, the Conservative drought in provincial capitals may finally be about to end.
In any case, the drought was always illusory. Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party is conservative in all but name. Voters go to the polls there April 4, and Mr. Wall is widely expected to prevail once again.
And while the Liberals in British Columbia are unique unto themselves, in the main, they're more conservative than progressive, as the recent exodus of Tories from the Alberta and federal parties into Christy Clark's administration attests.
Though the situation in Alberta is confused – the Progressive Conservatives and Wildrose came first and second in last week's Calgary-Greenway by-election, but it's early days yet – conservative parties could soon be dominant once again in the West.
But the big news won't come until 2018, when we learn whether the Liberals' luck in Ontario finally runs out, after 15 years in power. Progressive Conservative Leader Patrick Brown appears to be doing everything right: tempering his party's position on climate change, reaching out to new Canadians in suburban ridings, uniting – at least for now – his fractious caucus.
That might not be enough. The ditches are strewn with the carcasses of pollsters and pundits who predicted past Liberal defeats in Ontario. But if – and this is a huge if – the Conservatives win the next provincial election in Ontario, the party will once again be ascendant provincially, which would have implications for events in Ottawa.
The federal Conservatives are leaderless and behind in the polls. The Trudeau government's honeymoon seems to be turning into "and they lived happily ever after."
But one reason the Liberal Party survived its near-death experience federally is that it stayed in the game provincially. A revival of Conservative fortunes at the provincial level could also presage federal renewal.
If the provincial Liberals were defeated in Ontario in 2018 – yes, to repeat, a HUGE if – Justin Trudeau would lose a key ally and appear vulnerable himself. Remember, federal elections are largely decided the same way Ontario elections are largely decided – by the results in the swing suburban ridings outside Toronto. Mr. Trudeau defeated Stephen Harper because he flipped those ridings, most of which have large immigrant populations, from Conservative blue to Liberal red.
Liberal Premier Kathleen Wynne defeated PC Leader Tim Hudak in 2014 by keeping the 905, as it's known, Liberal as well. If Mr. Brown wins, it will be because he convinced immigrant suburban voters in the 905 to switch from the Liberals to the Conservatives. If they do so provincially, they may be inclined to do so federally as well.
Oh look. We're back to predicting what can't be predicted.
But just as some of us greatly exaggerated the rumoured death of the Liberal Party, so too we need to remember that the Conservative eclipse will end – sooner, perhaps, rather than later. After all, to everything there is a season.
John Ibbitson