Fantasy football impact: Can the Bills get out of last place?

You always hear "consistency" preached. And sure, if you're good, you want to be consistent. That's pretty clear. But if you're bad, consistency kinda sucks.

Since 2008, across the NFL, NBA, and MLB, there have been 29 teams who have finished in the same place in their respective division more than half the time (or at least four times). Six teams have done it at least five times. But only one team, across all three leagues, has finished in the same spot in its division every year in the last six, and it's not a positive thing.

Here's the chart (Note: The NHL was omitted from this because the league's realignment prior to last season makes the research some sad combination of impossible and meaningless):

Finished in same spot in the division, at least four times in the last six years:

The Buffalo Bills have not been entirely without names in that time. Just considering fantasy-relevant players, they've had three different Pro Bowlers in the six years (Marshawn Lynch, C.J. Spiller, Terrell Owens), plus first-round draft picks J.P. Losman (such as it is) and EJ Manuel. Lee Evans and Steve Johnson were higher-end receivers, and Fred Jackson has been a perfectly capable running back. Even Ryan Fitzpatrick had his occasional moments.

The Bills haven't been the dregs of the NFL, necessarily. They've just had the unfortunate combination of being less-than-great, and plying their trade in the most consistent division in football -- the Patriots, Jets, and Dolphins all appear in my above chart.

Still, excuses are nice, but they've finished in last place for six years running now, and that's crazy. Can they break the streak? Can the new additions -- draft-pick WR Sammy Watkins, trade acquisitions Mike Williams and Bryce Brown -- crash the party and make an impact? Is there another spot in the standings waiting for the Bills?

Quarterback

Scrambling quarterbacks present interesting cases, as they generally bring an increased risk of injury but strong fantasy floors. A quarterback who rushes for a few dozen yards a game almost has to score enough fantasy points to be relevant. It was what kept Tim Tebow fantasy-viable in his one season. And it was what kept EJ Manuel at least solvent last year -- when he was healthy, yes.

Manuel missed six games with injury. But in the 10 games he played, he managed double-digit fantasy points six times, in large part due to his 186 rushing yards, which was 13th among quarterbacks despite his lost time. He never passed for even 300 yards in a game, and only reached 200 yards passing four times, 250 once. His 1,972 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and nine interceptions will all need to improve dramatically if he's going to make a go as a fantasy-relevant quarterback in 2014.

Now, Manuel was working at a bit of a disadvantage last season. Buffalo's veteran No. 1 receiver, Steve Johnson, had his worst season as a regular, and rookie receiver Robert Woods, tight end Scott Chandler, and the team's running backs weren't enough to make up the difference. This year, the team still has Woods, Chandler, and the running backs, drafted Watkins fourth overall, and traded for Mike Williams from Tampa Bay as well.

There's an argument to be made that the Bills paid too high a price on Watkins, who is elite but also happened to fall in a draft that was crazy deep in receivers. But that's all moot now, as he's there, and he's good. Manuel has weapons.

So this year, the onus is on him to produce. And I remain unconvinced he can. Because in addition to his six double-digit fantasy games last season, he also put up nine once, six once, four once, one once. He had enough disaster-type games that I just can't see trusting him.

In short, I don't think I'd bother with Manuel even in two-quarterback leagues. I rank him in the late-20s among quarterbacks, in the Matt Schaub-Ryan Fitzpatrick zone. Look elsewhere.

Running backs

Injuries sapped much of C.J. Spiller's effectiveness a year ago, as the running back who was a first-round pick in most fantasy drafts before the season finished only 28th at the position, rushing for more than 100 yards in only four games. After eight touchdowns in 2012, he found the end zone only twice last year.

I chronicled in the Ticker in the middle of last season why we might have been overconfident in Spiller heading in to last year. In short, we were reading too much into "talent" and not enough into "injury history" and "lack of consistent production."

Regardless, Spiller does have tantalizing talent, and he's still going to get the bulk of Buffalo's carries. That's true even with the continued presence of Fred Jackson, who was significantly more productive than Spiller last year, to the tune of 1,277 yards from scrimmage, 10 touchdowns and a team-high 175 fantasy points.

Jackson, who turned 33 in February, is entering his eighth season and has 1,394 career touches; at some point, we have to start worrying about his legs. In short, yes, he was fantasy's No. 10 running back in 2013, but it's hard to picture that repeating.

Spiller isn't likely to be the running back that finished in the top 10 in 2012, but he probably won't sputter to 28th at the position again, either. I rank him as my No. 14 running back, a third-ish-round pick overall. As for Jackson, Spiller's rise has to equal some fall for his counterpart. I slot him in the early-30s at the position, in the 70s overall.

The team also traded for Bryce Brown, Philadelphia's one-time backup. He's not someone to draft, but should anything happen to Spiller, Brown -- a similar, if fumble-prone, runner -- could see some decent value.

Wide receivers

There were teams that could have drafted Sammy Watkins out of Clemson where he would have been a top-20 or so fantasy option at the position. Sam Bradford, for example, has his faults, but if Watkins were in St. Louis, I would have enough trust to bump him way up. Unfortunately, he's with a quarterback in Manuel who I can't possibly say is bad, but I can completely confidently say is untrustworthy, and his lack of a reliable deep downfield arm really could cost Watkins.

That's why the Bills have, it seems, decided to add every super-speedy player in the world, to give Manuel as many burners to work with as possible. In addition to the aforementioned Spiller, Jackson, and Brown, the Bills have wheels in Watkins, trade acquisition Mike Williams, and second-round players Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin. Basically, the Bills might not have the best group of skill players in the game, but I would put every dollar I have on that group winning a relay race against any team in the league.

Still, a lower-end quarterback is going to keep all but the uber-elite receivers in check a bit. Watkins is the Bills' No. 1, but I couldn't put him even in my top 30 receivers. I slot Watkins in the mid-30s at the position, maybe in the mid-80s overall. He's got upside, but I wouldn't want to count on him as more than a flex play this season.

Behind him, Mike Williams, over from Tampa Bay, is the team's new No. 2. Williams has twice in his four years come up just shy of 1,000-yard seasons (964 in 2010, 996 in 2012), and has put up 11 and nine touchdowns in those years, respectively. He's also had two awful years, with terrible production in 2011 and an injury-ravaged six games in 2013. His inconsistency is why he was available for Buffalo, but he stands to be the team's likely red-zone target. Still, there are many mouths to feed, and Williams is at best the No. 4 in the Buffalo offense. He's maybe a top-200 player, but at wide receiver I can't put him even in my top 60.

Woods and Goodwin have flashes -- three touchdowns apiece last year -- and Goodwin certainly has speed, with three of his 17 catches in 2013 going for 40-plus yards, but barring injury, neither is likely to be productive enough for a fantasy roster. Go for Woods over Goodwin, but the better bet is to go for neither.

Tight end

Scott Chandler has had three different two-touchdown games in his career, but none since Week 4 of 2012. He scored only twice last year, and only reached 655 yards -- which was still a career-high.

Chandler has never been a viable week-to-week starter in fantasy, and that's still true. He'll be a bye-week/injury fill-in a few times over the season, and one or two of those times he'll be a good one. But he's just not involved enough in the offense for more than that. I rank him as my No. 32 tight end.

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