The dynast, the doctor and the gator-wrestler

AT A Mexican restaurant in a shopping centre in Baton Rouge, Louisiana’s state capital, Bill Cassidy, a congressman, is awkwardly serving burritos. White-haired, and wearing a comically large name-badge, he shakes hands—asking diners first for their order and then for their vote. It is not easy work. One smartly-dressed old lady speaks to him enthusiastically for a minute or two—before admitting that in 63 years of living in America she has never bothered to apply for citizenship, and so cannot vote.

Mr Cassidy, a Republican, is hoping to snatch a Senate seat from Mary Landrieu, the Democratic incumbent, who was first elected in 1996. That year Bill Clinton took Louisiana, but since then the state has turned strongly Republican. Ms Landrieu has hung on through luck, grit and local loyalty: her father was a notable mayor of New Orleans, and her brother is mayor now. But this year, with a deeply unpopular Democrat in the White House, she is struggling.

As well as burritos, Mr Cassidy is serving up vitriol. He has attacked Ms Landrieu for living in Washington, DC (she claims her parents’ home as her residence in Louisiana); for using federal money to pay for campaign trips; and for supporting Obamacare. In one advert, he accuses her of voting to “put illegal immigrants ahead of veterans”, despite having voted for the same benefit cuts. Ads from outside groups accuse the senator of wanting to ban guns and spend taxpayers’ cash on abortions. Roadside billboards show her smiling and waving with Barack Obama.

Ms Landrieu, for her part, stresses her independence and her ability, as head of the Senate energy committee, to bring jobs to Louisiana. On a tour of a refinery near Lake Charles, an oil city near the Texan border, she shouts over the din that, “unlike some parts of the country”, in Louisiana people are not afraid of heavy industry, and nods approvingly on hearing that workers without college degrees can make $80,000 a year working there.

Her best hope is to woo moderates in places like Lake Charles and get out the black and liberal vote in New Orleans, the biggest city in Louisiana. That is possible. In a new CNN poll Ms Landrieu led Mr Cassidy 43% to 40%, with 9% opting for a third candidate, Rob Maness. If no one wins more than 50% of the vote on November 4th, a run-off between the top two candidates will be held in December. Turnout tends to be low in run-offs, which usually helps Republicans, whose older, whiter supporters are more likely to bother to vote twice. In a two-person race Mr Cassidy would beat Ms Landrieu by 50% to 47%, according to CNN. Other polls agree.

Mr Cassidy is not the most inspiring candidate. With his distinguished hair and doctor’s manner (he was a liver specialist before entering Congress) he resembles a TV caricature of a politician. Few voters know much about him. His best hand is his detailed critique of Obamacare—but voters may not be as angry about the health law as Republicans hope.

Some conservatives prefer Mr Maness, a retired air-force colonel with a populist touch. He poses with alligators in his ads (see picture). If elected, he promises to take his office door off its hinges, because “too many crooked deals happen behind closed doors in Washington”. At a restaurant in the swamps near New Orleans on September 27th he served gator gumbo to dozens of chanting supporters. Alongside was Sarah Palin, darling of the Tea Party, who flew down to denounce the Washington establishment—including Mr Cassidy. Mr Maness will not win, but he is bound to siphon votes away from him.

Maness supporters will probably back Mr Cassidy in the event of a run-off. But by then the electoral landscape could have shifted. If the Senate splits 50 to 49 in November, “all bets are off”, says Pearson Cross of the University of Louisiana. Everything would suddenly depend on the Pelican State. Money and volunteers would pour in. Ms Landrieu would still have a tough time winning, but she might be able to get out the vote.

If so, it would be the biggest political event in Louisiana since David Duke, a white supremacist, fought Edwin Edwards, a crook, for the governorship in 1991. (Mr Edwards won.) Louisiana’s political reporters would be in for a treat. The state’s voters, who mostly just want to get back to their lunch, may be less enthused.