Spin Doctors: Ryan Mathews vs. C.J. Anderson
In this episode of the Docs, Brad Evans and Liz Loza offer their diagnoses on projected RB2s Ryan Mathews and C.J. Anderson. Who will churn out the better numbers this season? Read their arguments and declare a winner in the comments section below.
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Brad unfurls his tongue, naturally, for Ryan Mathews: Admittedly, my adoration for Mathews is unapologetic. Ever since he entered the league in 2010, I've been enamored with his potential. He's flashy, explosive and versatile. Recall in 2011 and 2013 he tucked inside the RB top-12 in overall fantasy production. If not for his highly consumable flesh – DAMN YOU INJURY IMP! – he would have lived up to my mammoth expectations.
Despite his downsides, Mathews is the more desirable rusher. With only rookie Wendell Smallwood as his direct competition, he's destined to entrench himself as the Eagles' early-down and goal-line rusher. Remember last year under Chip Kelly's direction, he was a productive complementary option to DeMarco Murray. Among rushers with at least 90 touches, he ranked fourth in standard fantasy points per opportunity. Additionally, his 2.7 yards after contact was equal to DJ and Lamar Miller (Thanks PFF).
Skeptics contend his injury susceptibility and unknowns surrounding Doug Pederson's offense are reasons to avoid, but, if deployed similarly as Jamaal Charles was under Pederson in KC (18.4 tchs/g in '15), he'll turn a hefty profit at his current 55.2 ADP, some 20 spots later than C.J. Anderson (35.7 ADP). Keep in mind, the Eagles offensive line ranked No. 1 last season in run-blocking on 'power' plays, an area that suits Mathews' game perfectly. On roughly 16-19 touches per game, he's more than capable of 1,300 total yards with 7-9 TDs.
To be fair, Anderson will enter training camp in the catbird seat. However, rookie Devontae Booker, an impressive three-down workhorse during his two years at Utah, is a legit workload threat. Without Peyton Manning in the picture, the learning curve for rookie RBs isn't nearly as steep. Given Booker's plus efforts as an interior runner, pass catcher and blocker, he could wrest away some 10-12 carries from Anderson right away.
Speaking as objectively as possible, Mathews is the more 'money' RB2.
Liz gets giddy about C.J. Anderson: It’s hard to be giddy about one of the biggest busts of 2015, but I do think Anderson is in line for a bounce back season. While it lasted entirely too long, the Ronnie Hillman experiment came to an official end this past February, leaving Anderson to gobble up the bulk of the carries heading into 2016. While some may see the addition of Devontae Booker as an indictment of Anderson’s workhorse status, I’d argue that drafting a 24-year-old rookie with a checkered injury past has more to do with depth and value than a lack of confidence in a player who’s rushed for 4.7 YPC in back-to-back campaigns.
Let’s be honest: volume – not power or skill - is what killed Anderson’s fantasy value last fall. Had he not sprained his toe and tweaked his ankle in Week 1 the dude would have gotten fed and put up monster stats. After all, this is a player who scored every time (save Week 20) he was allowed more than 13 totes. Additionally, he was a beast after contact, averaging 2.9 yards post-collision. For perspective, he was among the top-ten producers in that statistical category, tying Todd Gurley and Karlos Williams.
Admittedly Mathews is in a good spot. At the present moment, he appears to be the team’s RB1 and figures to be heavily featured in a run-focused offense. Still, this is a player who, over a six-year career, has only pulled off one injury-free season (2013). Yes, he’s a stud when healthy, but since 2010 he’s broken both clavicles, missed significant time due to MCL and ankle sprains, has been concussed, and is coming off of groin surgery.
With Doug Pederson as his offensive coordinator, RB Jamaal Charles averaged over 19 total touches per game. Mathews has only handled a workload that large a single time over the past two years. Perhaps that’s because his body simply can’t withstand the rigors of a full load. I usually pride myself in being “injury agnostic” (a phrase borrowed from the great Bob Harris), as illustrated by my belief in Anderson, but some guys aren’t built to last.
While both backs come with their share of concerns the safer bet is Anderson.
Follow our fearless forecasters on twitter, Brad (@YahooNoise) and Liz (@LizLoza_FF).
