Why the Predators will rebound ... and why they won't

It was just a week ago that the Predators captured the first two games of an NHL playoff series for the first time in franchise history.

The number of interest at that point was 86 — as in 86 percent of NHL teams winning the first two games of a series went on to capture it.

A week later, however, things aren’t looking as nearly as optimistic for the Predators, who’ve lost three straight games to the Anaheim Ducks in this Western Conference quarterfinal. As a result, the Predators head into Monday night’s Game 6 at Bridgestone Arena simply trying to keep their postseason alive.

“Everybody knows it’s do or die,” Predators goalie Pekka Rinne said. “It’s one game. We have to win. That’s the bottom line. It’s not going to get better if you start worrying about that. You know the facts and you know if you lose, that’s it for the season.”

Predators vs. Ducks, Game 6: 3 things to watch

Can the Predators rebound and send this series to Game 7 on Wednesday at Anaheim, or will their season end Monday night in Nashville?

Here are three reasons to support each scenario:

Why the Predators will rebound

Return of Craig Smith? The Predators haven’t won since forward Craig Smith suffered a lower-body injury in the opening seconds of Game 3. Smith, a 21-goal scorer, was a big part of the team’s second line.

He didn’t make the trip to California for Game 5, but he was skating and practicing with a handful of teammates on Sunday. He looked healthy, but is still listed as day-to-day. Perhaps the fact that the Predators are playing an elimination game might add urgency to Smith’s return — even if he’s not quite 100 percent.

5 takeaways from Predators' 5-2 Game 5 loss to Ducks

He would be a nice offensive addition for a team that’s scored a combined three goals in its last three games.

“Obviously he’s a great asset for us — his speed and his skill,” Predators captain Shea Weber said. “I have no idea where he’s at, but hopefully he’s close and hopefully he’s ready.”

Wilson’s come alive. After collecting just 24 points in 64 regular-season games, Predators forward Colin Wilson has come alive during the postseason, posting a team-high four points (one goal, three assists) in five games. He picked up the primary assist on Ryan Johansen’s goal that gave the Predators a brief lead in Game 5.

If the Predators can continue to count on Wilson — and add a few more contributors — their chances will improve.

“The game is so simple when all you’re thinking about is winning just one game,” Wilson said. “You’re focus is just one game, one shift. For me, it’s been a good mental state to be in.”

Due for home win. The Predators have played 10 postseason series and only once — in the 2011 Western Conference semifinals vs. Vancouver — did Nashville fail to pick up at least home victory. In addition, 13 of the league’s 16 playoff teams this year — the Predators, Kings and Rangers are exceptions — have won at least one postseason home game.

The Predators were 23-11-7 at home during the regular season, and Bridgestone Arena should be full of energy on Monday. Nashville doesn’t want a repeat of Game 4, when it allowed an early goal that took the life out of the building.

Ducks put Predators on brink of elimination

“We want to be home in front of our fans. They’ve been great all year,” Predators coach Peter Laviolette said. “I think giving up that early goal in Game 4 can sometimes take the energy and settle it down for a second. Then when you’re having a hard time scoring a goal or creating offensive chances, it’s hard to get that energy back going in the building.”

Why the Predators are finished

Big guns silent. Through five games, the Predators’ top-line forwards haven’t produced much. Filip Forsberg (one goal, two assists) leads the way with three points, but he’s been shut out for three straight games.

Johansen got a goal on Saturday, but has just two points (one goal, one assist). James Neal (one goal, zero assists) has been held without a point since scoring 35 seconds into Game 1, and Mike Ribeiro has one point (an assist) to go with his minus-three rating and six penalty minutes.

Pekka’s problems. The Predators need Rinne to at least be as good as his counterpart, Frederik Andersen, but that hasn’t been the case for the last three games, as Rinne has surrendered 11 goals in those contests.

He’s given up goals he can’t afford to in each of the last two games, allowing Ryan Getzlaf to stuff home a loose puck in front early in Game 4 and allowing Ryan Garbutt to score from behind the goal line in Game 5.

Rinne’s 3.02 goals against average ranks 15th among NHL playoff goalies and his .889 save percentage is 18th.

Pekka Rinne struggles, allows 'terrible goal'

“You wish you could take (the Game 5 goal) back and get another opportunity, but that’s not going to happen,” Rinne said. “You just have focus on the next one. … At this point in the season, you have to play your best and that’s what I’m trying to do.”

Powerless power play. A team that’s struggling to score five-on-five like the Predators — a combined three goals in the last three games — has to be able to connect on the power play from time to time.

Heading into Sunday’s playoff games, the Ducks had been short-handed 22 times — the second-highest figure in the league behind the Lightning. But the Ducks have killed off 21 of those power plays, a 95.5 percent success rate that is the league’s second-best.

Much of Anaheim's success killing penalties has stemmed from the fact that the team as a whole blocks shots so well.

Reach John Glennon at 615-259-8262 and on Twitter @glennonsports.

GAME 6

DUCKS at PREDATORS

Anaheim leads series 3-2

When: 7 p.m. Monday

TV/radio: Fox TN/102.5-FM