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Sadiq Khan, running hard.
Sadiq Khan, running hard. Photograph: London News Pictures/REX Photograph: London News Pictures/REX
Sadiq Khan, running hard. Photograph: London News Pictures/REX Photograph: London News Pictures/REX

Who will Labour's next London mayoral candidate be?

This article is more than 9 years old

Recent polls suggest that Sadiq Khan, Tessa Jowell or Diane Abbott will lead Labour's next attempt to win City Hall, but nothing looks certain yet

Two surveys of Labour-supporting Londoners about their choice to be the party's candidate for the next mayoral election in 2016 have produced two different results. What, if anything, does this mean?

The first was from a YouGov poll for the Evening Standard, which asked Londoners intending to vote Labour at next year's general election who they would pick. Of these, 17% chose Diane Abbott - my MP, as it happens - followed by 14% who preferred Dame Tessa Jowell, 9% who went for Tottenham MP David Lammy and 8% who picked shadow London minister Sadiq Khan.

In response, activist website Labour List asked its readers who they would prefer. This time Khan came out on top with 22% of the vote, followed by Jowell on 17%, Abbott on 15% and Lammy on 7%.

Neither finding is very conclusive. None of the contenders had a decisive lead and the two surveys' samples weren't huge: YouGov's was just 362 people while 772 Labour List readers took part in its opinion-testing exercise. Even so, New Statesman's George Eaton makes the case that Khan is the frontrunner.

He argues that, although the "selectorate" that will decide on the 2016 candidate will include non party members registered as supporters for a small fee, active party members will predominate; and, as these are the sorts of people who read Labour List, its survey is likely to be "a better guide to the result than the YouGov poll". Eaton continues:

As shadow London minister, Khan has the in-built advantage of being able to regularly meet activists and constituency Labour parties and was rightly praised for Labour's remarkable performance in London in the local elections (its best result since 1998).

Certainly, there's a feeling - shared, with mild annoyance, by one or two of his rivals - that Khan has a highly advantageous inside track with the London party machine. He's also forged good relationships with the media, including with the ever-Tory Standard whose outright dislike any Labour candidate would prefer not to attract. Khan also argues for bold policies on equality and housing, which will appeal to many London activists. He's clearly in a strong position.

That said, both Jowell and Abbott might be seen by some Labour members as more likely winners of the mayoral election itself. Each has a higher and more vivid personality profile than Khan with the general public, Abbott for her TV appearances and various controversies, Jowell because of her close association with the London Olympics. The same might be claimed for Lammy, who's won attention for his outrider views on greenbelt building and slang.

The part of the YouGov poll which asked all of its 1115 sample, not just the Labour-supporting ones, which possible Labour mayoral candidate they liked best put Jowell at the top of the tree with 11%, slightly ahead of Abbott with 9%, Lammy and Doreen Lawrence with 6% and Khan with just 5%. Again, hardly conclusive - except, perhaps, for showing that for all and any Labour politicians with their eye on City Hall there is still plenty to play for.

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