consumer outlook index

Gold and silver prices rose on MCX amid geopolitical tensions. US retail sales exceeded forecasts. Spot gold closed at $2388. Explosions in Iran, Syria, and Iraq impacted gold prices.

The PMI for manufacturing activity increased to 56.9 in February, reflecting a strong expansionary momentum, as growth in the output of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to a three-month high of 6.7% in February from 4.1% in January, NCAER said in its review for March that was released on Sunday.

Britain's annual inflation rate fell more than expected in February, official data showed Wednesday, fuelling speculation that the Bank of England will start cutting interest rates in the coming months. "The Bank of England has already said it's not going to cut interest rates in a hurry," Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown, said following Wednesday's data.

The rally in Indian equities faces challenges from earnings misses, rival markets, and a recovery in Chinese equities. Foreigners sell local shares, prompting downgrades from Citigroup and Societe Generale. Investors consider reallocating capital to Korea and Taiwan. China's market rescue efforts may be slowing. Despite the short-term profit-taking, the longer-term outlook for India remains in tact.

Consumer confidence in the USA increased to an 18-month high in June, reaching 109.7, up from 102.5 in May. Despite some predictions of recession in the next year, over 30% of consumers expected family financing to improve in the next six months, compared to fewer than 14% believing that it would get worse. Consumers under 35 and earning over $35,000 were most confident.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year to 6.3% from 6.1%. The IMF also expects retail inflation in India to rise to 5.5% in 2023/24 before easing to 4.6% in 2024/25. The IMF attributed the upward revision in growth forecast to stronger-than-expected consumption during April-June. The Reserve Bank of India has projected inflation at 5.4% and GDP growth at 6.5% for the current fiscal year.

Indian blue-chip indexes rose as fresh US data indicated a cooling economy, leading to optimism about the interest rate outlook. The NSE Nifty 50 index and the S&P BSE Sensex both increased by 0.13%. All major sectors, except for pharma, saw gains. Bajaj Auto was the top gainer, with a 2.5% increase. The small-cap and mid-cap segments also performed well. The outlook for Indian markets remains positive, supported by increased retail participation and strong macroeconomic fundamentals. Brent crude prices fell to around $81 per barrel, benefiting countries like India which are importers of the commodity.

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Paytm, India's digital payments firm, experienced a significant drop of up to 20% in its stock price due to the company's decision to reduce low-value personal loans following tightened regulations by the Reserve Bank of India.

Wholesale price inflation in India remained negative for the seventh consecutive month in October at -0.52%, primarily due to lower food prices. However, experts warn of potential upside risks to inflation from volatile vegetable prices and rising domestic food prices. Inflation in food articles eased to 2.53% in October, with vegetables and potatoes experiencing deflation while onion prices rose by 62.60%. Retail inflation, on the other hand, stood at 4.87% in October.

Consumer confidence continued on its recovery path in November but remained in pessimistic zone, a survey released by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed on Wednesday.

The economy is projected to double from $3.5trn in 2022 to $7.3trn over this period, taking it two spots up from the fifth largest economy it is right now

The Times of India Online Economists' Survey takes a deeper insight into what is driving inflation in India, when it is likely to come down and what else needs to be done on the monetary and fiscal front.

Inflation though is seen hurting the rich the most (82%), followed by the middle class (72%) and low income (67%).

Indian shares hit record highs after Asian peers surged on the back of a moderation in US inflation, which offset concerns over higher-than-expected domestic inflation. The Nifty 50 index climbed up to 0.76% to a new all-time high of 19,532.25, with the S&P BSE Sensex up 0.80% to a fresh peak of 65,916.83.

China’s post-pandemic recovery may be slowing as the Caixin China services purchasing managers’ index fell from 57.1 in May to 53.9 in June, a six-month low. The lower figure reflects reduced spending on services such as restaurants and travel, and a fall in consumer confidence and demand as a result of higher youth unemployment and a poor outlook for income.

India's retail inflation likely held steady in June, but well above the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance limit for a sixth month as lower fuel and cooking oil prices offset higher services and food costs, a Reuters poll found.