Time to ditch Mandela’s party

TWENTY years after the new South Africa emerged from the quagmire of apartheid to vote for the first time by universal franchise for a parliament, the African National Congress (ANC) is sure to win yet again (see article). The parliament elected on May 7th is in turn virtually certain to reappoint Jacob Zuma as the rainbow nation’s president. Yet both the ANC and Mr Zuma have been heading the wrong way. They have let down Nelson Mandela. They no longer deserve to rule.

A long wait

Judged over the past two decades, the ANC has undeniable achievements to its credit. Thanks in large part to the magnanimity of Mandela but also to other ANC leaders, the transition from white-minority to black-majority rule was miraculously smooth. A confident and impressive black middle class has emerged. At the other end of the scale, the proportion of South Africans living in absolute poverty has declined from 41% in 1994 to 31% at last count, according to the World Bank. Many millions more have decent housing, electricity and drinkable water. The economy has grown at an annual average of 3.3% since 1994, a little slow by emerging-market standards but hardly disastrous.

Yet the negatives have been steadily piling up. The presidency of Thabo Mbeki (1999-2008) was marked by increasing intolerance, including a readiness to resort to racially tinged abuse, that began to permeate the ANC. Among other failings, the woeful denial of the HIV/AIDS plague by Mr Mbeki and other ANC leaders caused untold needless misery and death. Mr Zuma, in charge since 2009, has a sunnier temperament and a cannier political sense than Mr Mbeki. He could have pushed through tricky reforms, but he has lacked the vision and courage to get much done.

Two particular scourges have worsened under his rule: the lack of jobs and the spread of corruption. The number of unemployed South Africans, now a third of the working-age population if you include those who have given up looking for jobs, has risen sharply under Mr Zuma. The economy has stagnated at a time when the rest of Africa is starting to boom. And corruption is growing apace. The ANC gives the impression that South Africa is a de facto one-party state where only its friends should get the plum jobs and contracts. Mr Zuma himself is sorely tainted by scandal and dodgy friendships. In addition, mindful of the menace to the ANC of Julius Malema, a racist firebrand who has set up a populist splinter group, Mr Zuma has felt obliged to match him with legislative proposals that if enacted would put off much-needed investors.

Today the ANC pretends to be all things at once while resting on the laurels of liberation. Unless it undergoes its own drastic reform and rebirth, which seems unlikely but not inconceivable, South Africa would be better off if the party were to split in half. Voters would then have a real choice between a socialist party, backed by trade unions and communists, and a social-democratic, market-friendly one.

Meanwhile the party with the best ideas is the liberal Democratic Alliance (DA), the main opposition, which is led courageously by Helen Zille, a white former anti-apartheid activist. The DA deserves to be endorsed. It has doggedly promoted non-racial and liberal values and sensible economic policies. It has a decent record in government as the party that has run the Western Cape province since 2009, and the city of Cape Town for several years longer. And it stands for many of the hopes and values of the post-apartheid black middle class. Sadly, although the DA has been gaining ground, it has no chance of winning. Because it depends on support mainly from whites and citizens of mixed-race and Indian descent, it is unlikely to get much more than a fifth of the vote.

This means that the ANC will probably be in power for at least another ten years. Without Mandela his party has lost its way. Unless it reinvents itself or splits, South Africa will increasingly flounder under its rule.