The U.S. formally submitted to the United Nations a commitment to reduce its climate-warming greenhouse gas emissions by up to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. The commitment is aimed in part at spurring other countries to announce their plans ahead of a major round of international climate negotiations in Paris in December.
Commitments from the U.S., Mexico, the E.U. and others now amount to nearly 60% of the world’s energy-related carbon emissions, according to the White House announcement, which was made in blog post on Medium
Late last week, Mexico committed to peaking its greenhouse gas emissions by 2026, and reducing them thereafter.
The climate targets, which are technically known as "intended nationally determined contribution" (or INDCs, in U.N. jargon), can be achieved through existing domestic laws such as the Clean Air Act, according to Brian Deese, senior advisor to President Obama, and Todd Stern, the U.S. special envoy for climate change.
During a conference call with reporters on Tuesday, Deese and Stern said they believe the ways that the administration is using existing statutes, which bypasses a Congress that is hostile to ambitious climate action and even basic climate science research findings, are on solid ground despite numerous legal challenges to stop them.
A particular target of national and state-level lawmakers is the EPA’s Clean Power Plan, which seeks to regulate emissions from coal-burning power plants.
“This submission is ambitious and achievable within existing legal authority,” Deese said.
“Countries ask me about the solidity of what we’re doing all the time,” Stern says. “Undoing the kind of regulation that we are doing is very tough to do.”
The U.S. target will roughly double the pace of carbon pollution cuts in the U.S. from 1.2% per year on average between 2005 to 2020, to up to 2.8% a year between 2020 and 2025, according to the White House.
So far, though, a new analysis suggests the U.S. is not on pace to meet its 2009 climate target of reducing emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020. The White House disputes that, maintaining that the policies it has announced so far will meet the 2020 target.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky has been particularly active in efforts to undermine the administration’s policies and project the message that U.S. commitments made in Paris may not be ironclad after all.
"Considering that two-thirds of the U.S. federal government hasn't even signed off on the Clean Power Plan and 13 states have already pledged to fight it, our international partners should proceed with caution before entering into a binding, unattainable deal," McConnell told the AP.
What could happen in Paris
The agreement that may take shape in Paris is not likely to be a formal treaty subject to Senate ratification, Stern said, as the U.S. has thrown its support behind a hybrid approach that would have each country commit to its own reductions with some mechanism in place to ensure the individual pledges are sufficient to avert dangerous manmade global warming.
The U.S. pledge would put the country on a "straight-line path" to reducing carbon emissions by 80% by the year 2050, Stern said, although that is not a formal goal to which the Obama administration has committed.
Environmental groups largely praised Tuesday's submission, but said it should be regarded as a floor for negotiations in Paris.
“In the coming months, we expect additional ambitious commitments to pour in that will further prove the world is ready to act and keep us on the right track to Paris and beyond,” said Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune in a statement.
Numerous scientific assessments show that far more ambitious emissions cuts will be needed in order to meet the 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) global warming goal established in previous rounds of U.N. climate talks.
“As the largest contributor to climate impacts already here today, the United States has a responsibility to lead and do its fair share. When compared to what scientists warn us is needed to avoid the worst impacts to our cities, our food systems and water supplies, the US pledge falls short,” said Lou Leonard, vice president of climate change programs at the World Wildlife Fund.