Reality cheque for rugby’s southern hemisphere as exodus takes hold

Will the last player out of Australia and New Zealand please turn out the lights? An exaggeration, perhaps, but never has the lure of heading offshore to Europe or Japan been so strong for the southern hemisphere’s top talent. If you are planning to take a long-haul flight from Brisbane, Auckland or Johannesburg later this year, do not be surprised if there is a big bloke with a crooked nose sitting next to you.

The exodus is destined to intensify in the final six months of this year as the four-year Rugby World Cup cycle reaches its end. Already it is possible to pick a classy backline from those preparing to head north from Australasia. Dan Carter, Charles Piutau, Conrad Smith, Ma’a Nonu, Quade Cooper, Colin Slade, Will Genia, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Nic White and Peter Betham – plus forwards such as the Harlequins-bound James Horwill and Bordeaux’s incoming prop Sekope Kepu - are merely the advance guard. Assuming South Africans such as Duane Vermeulen, Francois Hougaard, Willem Alberts and Willie Le Roux join them, that is a lot of eye-catching talent to replace.

Don’t just take my word for it. Instead, listen to the verdict of the vastly experienced Ali Williams immediately after Toulon had progressed to a third successive European Cup final, inspired by the likes of Bryan Habana, Matt Giteau, Chris Masoe, Juan Martín Fernández Lobbe, Bakkies Botha, Carl Hayman, Juan Smith and Rudi Wulf. “Without doubt there is a shift taking place,” stressed Williams. “It’s not just money, it’s also about experience. I was a typical New Zealand rugby person, adamant that you don’t leave and Super Rugby is where you stay. But what you offer here is just incredible. It’s amazing. Is the rugby the best? At the end of the day maybe not but I don’t think that matters.”

It is Williams’ clear belief a load more players will shortly follow. “I wouldn’t say it’s a concern but I do think World Rugby and other bodies need to come together and say: ’What is the solution?’”

It may well be too late. The Australian Rugby Union has just announced a A$6.3 million loss for the last financial year. Irish and English teams are acutely aware they need deeper squads to outflank the big Top 14 sides. Premiership teams will shortly be permitted a second ’marquee’ player, always assuming they have the dosh to attract one. Despite efforts to ensure more homegrown players feature in the Top 14, meanwhile, certain French clubs are already circumventing the spirit of the regulations by skimming off the best teenage Pacific Island talent with the aim of making them eligible for Les Bleus after three years.

It is an increasingly desperate scorpion dance with massive potential ramifications. What price the continuing appeal of autumn Tests, for example, if the best Springboks, Wallabies and All Blacks are simultaneously playing club rugby north of the equator? What will be the knock-on effect in terms of developing young players back home if their peers do not hang around to teach them the trade secrets? As the Pacific nations will testify, building international cohesion is hard if your best players are based on a different continent.

There have already been clear repercussions for France in terms of the players available for the national selectors in certain positions. Does anyone seriously reckon Philippe Saint-André’s team would currently beat a full-strength Clermont? Toulon would probably be too strong, too, even if they undermined that argument with the poverty of their performance against Leinster at the weekend.

Market forces, inevitably, will dictate exactly what happens next but there is no question which way things are heading. And if the SANZAR nations’ ability to compete financially diminishes further who can blame professional players for chasing the euro or the yen? As we have noted before in these columns, countries with a thriving professional club league will be at a serious advantage.

On the plus side, a spell abroad tends to breed better human beings as well as players; valuable ideas and perspective can then be imported back to the country of origin. Australia’s decision to award fly-half Bernard Foley a “flexible” contract, which permits him to divide his time between Japan and the Wallabies, is recognition of that reality.

But ask anyone who was in St Etienne last weekend – as opposed to watching Clermont overcome Saracens on television – and they will tell you the professional game is accelerating into a new era, with the best-supported city and regional clubs enjoying increasing influence. In a few years’ time we may well regard as quaint the idea that top players should play elite club rugby only in their own backyards. Just as cricket now has the IPL and the Big Bash, rugby sevens is about to become an Olympic sport. Williams is absolutely right. The landscape of rugby union is being transformed in front of our eyes. For those with sufficient ability, it is increasingly a game without frontiers.

Groundhog Day

Opinion is divided over whether England should bite the bullet and include the French-based Steffon Armitage in their wider 45-man World Cup squad. It is true that the French championship final is on 13 June, which would potentially leave Armitage and Clermont’s Nick Abendanon with barely one week’s break before England’s training camp starts. Some England players have suggested it would be unfair to draft an outsider in; for political reasons the Premiership clubs are not keen either. Ultimately Stuart Lancaster must ask himself one simple question: will Armitage’s breakdown expertise and muscular groundhog qualities improve England’s chances of winning the Webb Ellis Cup? If the answer is ’yes’ then everything else is irrelevant. If a once-in-a-generation home World Cup does not count as ’exceptional circumstances’ nothing ever will.

One to watch

Northampton v Saracens. England’s leading clubs have had a bruising couple of weeks, which adds an extra element to Saturday’s big game in Milton Keynes. Clermont’s assistant coach Jonno Gibbes reckons Saracens are the better-equipped team, which is certain to prompt a reaction in the east midlands. Sarries, though, are desperate not to end another promising season empty-handed if they can help it. Having recently under performed in Clermont and Exeter, it is a massive game for the Saints.