The New England Patriots are the 3-point favorites in their toughest match-up of the season against the Denver Broncos at Mile High.
This is the second lowest line the Patriots have received this season, behind the 1-point line in Buffalo for week 2. New England ran away with that game and covered easily. The implication of a 3-point road favorite is a 6-point favorite on neutral ground, which seems about right with all of the Patriots injuries.
The Patriots have beaten or tied the spread in six home games, but have split the spread in the four road games, failing to cover in their past two against the Colts and the Giants. My gut feeling is that the Patriots either lose a close one, or blow them out, but I have a difficult time seeing a close Patriots victory.
Bill Belichick owns a 52-17 record as a 3-point or greater favorite on the road, with a 19-6 record in the past five seasons. The last two losses came in week 4 of 2014 against the Kansas City Chiefs and week 1 of 2014 against the Miami Dolphins.
The over/under is set at 43.5, but most of the money is on the under as people expect a defensive slogfest. The line projects a Patriots 23.25-20.25 victory.
Can you predict the final score?