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- A House Speaker who wasn’t under any kind of ethical or moral cloud, had not been indicted for a crime and didn’t have to take responsibility for a cataclysmic political or policy failure said the congressional equivalent of “Take this job and shove it, I ain’t working here no more” because staying would have meant that he had to keep dealing with the Freedom Caucus.
- A House Speaker who wasn’t under any kind of ethical or moral cloud, had not been indicted for a crime and didn’t have to take responsibility for a cataclysmic political or policy failure said the congressional equivalent of “Take this job and shove it, I ain’t working here no more” because staying would have meant that he had to keep dealing with the Freedom Caucus.
I’m setting the chances of a government shutdown when the current continuing resolution expires in December at 50 percent .
But first, I have lots of explaining to do.
The October shutdown I said two weeks ago was 75 percent likely was only avoided because something truly extraordinary happened: a speaker of the House of Representatives decided to resign rather than face a no confidence vote if he worked with the opposition party to keep the government operating.
John Boehner’s (R-OH) resignation was the political equivalent of what economists call a black swan event, a high-profile occurrence so beyond the realm of what’s normal that you have to be an oracle, prophet or soothsayer to predict it will occur.
(For the record, I did talk about the possibility that Boehner would say WTF, but I was as surprised as anyone when it actually happened.)
It was a truly astonishing moment in American history. A House Speaker who wasn’t under any kind of ethical or moral cloud, had not been indicted for a crime and didn’t have to take responsibility for a cataclysmic political or policy failure said the congressional equivalent of “Take this job and shove it, I ain’t working here no more” because staying would have meant that he had to keep dealing with the Freedom Caucus.
(For the record, I was about to increase the chances of a shutdown to 90 percent when Boehner announced his resignation because the only way to keep his job was to allow a shutdown to occur and stay in the Freedom Caucus’ good graces. As soon as Boehner made the announcement and the Freedom Caucus’ threat to unseat him became irrelevant, it was obvious the government would stay open.)
Boehner’s resignation won’t be repeated any time soon. The next speaker isn’t likely to resign only a month or so after formally getting the job. While nothing is ever certain in Republican politics these days, the chances of two black swan-like events occurring so rapidly is almost inconceivable.
It is certainly possible that the next speaker could declare his or her intention to develop compromises with Democrats and that the GOP’s ultra conservatives can either be part of the effort or be left behind. That might be a good governing strategy, but it’s exceptionally unclear whether a candidate for speaker could be nominated by the Republican caucus under these circumstances because the Freedom Caucus would likely deny him or her its votes.
The reality, therefore, is that the next speaker may not be electable without the Freedom Caucus but may be totally ineffective with its support.
But the ability of the next speaker to pull a Boehner is only one of the questions that lead to the conclusion that there’s a significant chance a shutdown will occur in December.
1. Unlike the short-term CR that was just enacted, the next government funding bill – either a continuing resolution or an omnibus appropriation – will likely be in effect through all of fiscal year 2016 and the decisions made in this bill are more likely to be looked at as final decisions by some representatives and senators. They may not, therefore, be as willing to go along with decisions they don’t like as they were in September.
2. The GOP House leadership team and its staff will be new and largely untested when the next CR/omnibus appropriation debate occurs. In addition, if one or more members of the current leadership team are defeated, the internal Republican political wounds may not have healed enough for everyone to trust each other in this critical debate.
3. The military vs. domestic spending issue that took a back seat to Planned Parenthood funding in the short-term CR will be a much more prominent political dispute in the long-term CR. The effort to increase the spending caps and do away with sequesters have the real potential to be epic political battles.
4. Planned Parenthood funding will be at least as big an issue in December as it was in September.
5. One way or another, the federal debt ceiling the Treasury now says must be raised by early November will be an issue when government funding runs out in December. Either Boehner will infuriate the Freedom Caucus and cut a deal to raise it before he leaves office at the end of October, or the debt ceiling will be raised on a short-term basis so it has to be increased again when the CR expires. Either way, the prospects for the CR will be that much more difficult.
For all these reasons, a 50 percent chance of a shutdown this December currently seems right. But…Stay tuned. There are still 8 weeks and House GOP leadership elections to go.
