By now, every marketer should be aware of the fact that mobile advertising matters. It’s no longer enough to have a website and an online presence that desktop users can access; if your site and presence aren’t optimized for mobile users, you’re falling behind the times. Take a look around you and you’ll see why—nearly every American adult seems to have their own smartphone, and many of them are scarcely seen without it.
But the shift in trends is based on more than just observation. According to a recent post by Google, searches on mobile devices have officially surpassed the number of searches on desktop devices in 10 different countries. Overall, desktop searches (and desktop traffic) still represent nearly half the overall market, but considering the fact that mobile devices only accounted for a tiny percentage of interactions just five years ago, is this trajectory enough to make desktop devices obsolete in the coming years?
The Increasing Dominance of Mobile
It should be obvious why the number of mobile searches is increasing compared to the number of desktop searches. A greater percentage of the population (64 percent to be exact) owns a smartphone or other mobile device, and naturally, they’re more inclined to use such devices. Consider also the fact that Internet connectivity is gradually becoming more ubiquitous and more reliable; almost every business in the country offers Wi-Fi, and barring that option, most smartphones automatically come with data plans that allow for Internet access anywhere.
There’s also a cultural shift to account for. In its infancy, mobile Internet access was often seen as a gimmick, or at the very least an inferior form of access best reserved only for emergencies. As the population gradually becomes more accustomed to mobile experiences, they become more likely to rely on them. This is accelerated by the fact that more companies recognize the importance of mobile marketing, and in turn make better mobile experiences. In short, we’re all contributing to an evolution of culture that naturally favors mobile experiences over desktop experiences.
The Desktop Stragglers
Of course, no matter how fast the rest of the world changes, there will always be people left behind using desktop devices. Generally, there are two types of people stuck in this position: people who can’t afford to use mobile devices, and older generations who refuse to adapt.
The people who can’t afford to use mobile devices will eventually come around. Mobile devices continue to become more affordable (earlier models do, at least), and companies have a vested interest in getting them in the hands of more users; after all, a more connected world is a world with more potential customers. Organizations like Facebook’s Internet.org are also attempting to beam universal, free Internet access, aiding the world in becoming more connected. It may take a while, but within a decade, I’d imagine universal free Internet will be a reality, and in another decade, the vast majority of the global population will have access to mobile devices.
Having access doesn’t mean they’ll actually use them, however. Older generations tend to stick with what they know best—and some won’t even use desktop devices because they perceive them to be too complicated. This cultural dynamic can’t be overcome by simply making things cheaper or easier to use. However, as time goes on, the current older generation will be replaced by today’s middle-aged population, who are already adapting relatively well to the onset of mobile technologies. Still, I’d imagine at least twenty years will pass before a generational shift of this magnitude can happen. Until then, there will always be a stubborn portion of the population who exclusively uses desktops (or nothing).
Why Previous Predictions Have Been Wrong
It’s worth mentioning that the death of desktop search is nothing new. In fact, back in 2010, Google executive John Herlihy explained that within 3 years (2013 by that count), all desktops would be irrelevant and smartphones would be the only choice. We didn’t quite hit that mark—it’s two years past that mark, and mobile searches have only now begun to surpass desktop searches.
This isn’t for lack of trying, of course. The technology is certainly at a point where desktops aren’t necessary, but the critical factor in imagining their death is the population’s willingness to move on.
What a Post-Desktop World Would Look Like
Ultimately, a post-desktop world wouldn’t be much different than the world we live in today. As marketers, we must meet the demands of mobile users first and foremost, with desktop-based online presence taking a backseat in priority. Having an app, a mobile-optimized site, and a partnership (or presence) on other apps will only grow in importance, but they will do so gradually. I don’t expect any major upheavals to happen suddenly or without warning. All you can do is pay attention to the trends and shift your strategies along a similar course.
When Desktop Search Will Actually Become Obsolete
I’m a believer that desktop search will one day become “obsolete,” in the sense that it’ll be totally outclassed by alternative forms of search, but like the VCR or DVD player, there will always be a small percentage of the population who relies on it. Still, my best guess is that by 2020, mobile search will account for at least 80 percent of global searches, and by 2025, it will account for 90 percent or more, and a far greater percentage of the global population will be able to contribute to those statistics.
