Markets Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Currency 105.88 105 106 107 108
Stock Market (points) 5065.47 5174 5075 4978 4883
Government Bond 10Y (%) 4.66 4.11 4.02 3.93 3.85

Overview Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.40 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.10 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 4 4 4.1 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 303.00 160 130 180 140
Inflation Rate (%) 3.50 3 2.8 2.3 2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 5.50 5.5 5.25 5 4.75
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -68.90 -67 -55 -65 -71
Current Account (USD Billion) -194.81 -195 -200 -187 -185
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.90 51 53 53 51
Business Confidence (points) 50.30 52 54 57 53
Services PMI (points) 50.90 52 54 53 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.40 51 53 54 52
Consumer Confidence (points) 77.90 75 77 73 68
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
Building Permits (Thousand) 1467.00 1600 1650 1700 1670
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.00 -2.8
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 134
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -6

GDP Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.40 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.10 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
GDP Constant Prices (USD Billion) 22679.26 22625 22851 22997 22951
Gross National Product (USD Billion) 22827.21 22788 23004 23147 23101
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (USD Billion) 4016.04 4027 4045 4072 4064
GDP from Services (USD Billion) 16364.30 16386 16519 16593 16561
GDP from Transport (USD Billion) 738.50 742 748 749 747
GDP from Construction (USD Billion) 863.40 835 865 875 874
GDP from Manufacturing (USD Billion) 2360.30 2303 2350 2393 2389
GDP from Public Administration (USD Billion) 2582.90 2596 2604 2619 2614
GDP from Mining (USD Billion) 304.80 298 306 309 308
GDP from Utilities (USD Billion) 351.60 371 342 357 356
GDP from Agriculture (USD Billion) 178.50 185 182 181 181
GDP (USD Billion) 25439.70 27780
GDP per Capita (USD) 62789.13 64170
GDP per Capita PPP (USD) 64623.13 66045
Full Year GDP Growth (%) 2.50 2.2

Labour Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.80 4 4 4.1 4.2
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 303.00 160 130 180 140
Nonfarm Payrolls Private (Thousand) 232.00 120 125 170 140
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 212.00 260 250 280 220
Continuing Jobless Claims (Thousand) 1812.00 2000 2100 2200 2250
ADP Employment Change (Thousand) 184.00 50 60 190 70
Employed Persons (Thousand) 161466.00 159600 159200 158500 158000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 6429.00 6500 6600 6720 6700
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.30 0.1 0 0 0.2
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.6 34.5 34.5 34.6
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.70 62.7 62.9 62.8 62.8
Long Term Unemployment Rate (%) 0.74 0.8 0.8 1 1
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 8.80 9 9 9.1 9.2
Productivity (points) 112.09 110 110 110 111
Labour Costs (points) 119.99 126 124 124 123
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 8352.00 8700 8600 8500 8400
Job Offers (Thousand) 8756.00 8500 8400 8000 7800
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 90309.00 84000 79000 65000 65000
Wages (USD/Hour) 29.79 30.2 30.24 30.51 30.59
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 27.46 27.58 27.78 28.2 28.2
Wage Growth (%) 5.77 4.8 4 3.4 2.7
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.90 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2
U6 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.30 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.7
Average Hourly Earnings YoY (%) 4.10 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.5
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 132940.00 132000 131000 130000 128000
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 28632.00 26900 26200 26000 26100
Employment Rate (%) 60.30 60.1 60 59.9 59.9
Population (Million) 335.89 336

Prices Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Inflation Rate (%) 3.50 3 2.8 2.3 2
Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.40 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 312.33 314 316 314 319
Core Inflation Rate (%) 3.80 2.6 2.2 2 2.3
Core Consumer Prices (points) 316.70 316 317 319 324
GDP Deflator (points) 123.27 125 126 126 126
Producer Prices (points) 143.69 143 145 145 147
Producer Prices Change (%) 2.10 1.6 1.3 1.8 2.2
Export Prices (points) 149.00 147 150 149 146
Import Prices (points) 140.40 142 145 140 142
Food Inflation (%) 2.20 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.3
CPI seasonally adjusted (points) 312.23 313 314 315 315
Producer Price Inflation MoM (%) 0.20 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1
Import Prices YoY (%) 0.40 2.2 2.5 1.5 1.1
Core Inflation Rate MoM (%) 0.36 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.1
Core PCE Price Index MoM (%) 0.30 0.2 -0.1 0.3 0.2
Core Producer Prices YoY (%) 2.40 1.8 1.6 2.1 1.7
PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.45 2 2 2.2 1.8
Core PCE Price Index Annual Change (%) 2.78 2.1 2 2 1.8
Inflation Expectations (%) 3.00 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 331.25 330 333 333 338
CPI Transportation (points) 272.49 273 274 275 275

Money Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Interest Rate (%) 5.50 5.5 5.25 5 4.75
Interbank Rate (%) 5.58 5.38 5.32 5.23 5.1
Money Supply M2 (USD Billion) 20841.20 20780 20800 20750 20600
Banks Balance Sheet (USD Billion) 23445.30 22500 22300 22100 22000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (USD Million) 7438176.00 7300000 7000000 6900000 6800000
Proxy Funds Rate (%) 6.08 6.08 5.83 5.58 5.33
Private Debt to GDP (%) 217.80 211

Trade Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Balance of Trade (USD Billion) -68.90 -67 -55 -65 -71
Current Account (USD Billion) -194.81 -195 -200 -187 -185
Imports (USD Billion) 331.91 325 315 321 328
Exports (USD Billion) 263.01 258 260 256 257
Terms of Trade (points) 108.76 103 104 106 103
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 12533.00 13100 13000 13100 13200
Tourist Arrivals 5279813.00 5600000 6500000 5420000 5900000
Current Account to GDP (% of GDP) -3.00 -2.8

Government Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Government Debt (USD Million) 34586533.00 34600000 34680000 34700000 34720000
Government Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 129.00 134
Government Budget (% of GDP) -5.80 -6
Government Spending to GDP (% of GDP) 37.00 35

Business Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.90 51 53 53 51
Business Confidence (points) 50.30 52 54 57 53
Services PMI (points) 50.90 52 54 53 51
Non Manufacturing PMI (points) 51.40 51 53 54 52
Composite PMI (points) 50.90 51 50 53 49
Industrial Production (%) 0.00 1.2 0.7 -0.5 1.2
Manufacturing Production (%) 0.80 0.8 2 1.6 1.2
Capacity Utilization (%) 78.40 79.1 79 79.2 79.2
Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (%) 0.20 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense (%) 2.30 4.2 1.5 3.2 -4
Durable Goods Orders (%) 2.60 2.1 0.9 1.2 -0.5
Factory Orders Ex Transportation (%) 1.10 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.4
Factory Orders (%) 1.40 -0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2
Business Inventories (%) 0.40 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
Wholesale Inventories (%) 0.50 -0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2
Bankruptcies (Companies) 18926.00 16500 16000 16000 16000
Corporate Profits (USD Billion) 2803.20 2300 2340 2280 2300
NFIB Business Optimism Index (points) 88.50 91 90 92 91
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (points) 15.50 8 9 11 7
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (points) 0.15 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -7.00 3 6 4.2 3
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (points) -14.30 -2 8 -4 6
Chicago PMI (points) 41.40 47 49 53 50
Car Production (Million Units) 11.66 10.86 11.12 11.18 11.8
Total Vehicle Sales (Million) 15.49 14.5 14.8 15.3 15.3
Car Registrations (Thousand) 289.70 240 230 250 250
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index (points) -9.00 2 2.5 4 3.6

Consumer Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Consumer Confidence (points) 77.90 75 77 73 68
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.70 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) 1.10 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.6
Retail Sales YoY (%) 4.00 2.1 2 1.8 1.4
Consumer Spending (USD Billion) 15586.67 15620 15709 15805 15774
Disposable Personal Income (USD Billion) 20709.27 21087 21233 21445 21645
Personal Spending (%) 0.80 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.3
Personal Income (%) 0.30 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
Personal Savings (%) 3.60 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2
Consumer Credit (USD Billion) 14.12 22 18 15 12
Bank Lending Rate (%) 8.50 8.3 8 5 5
Economic Optimism Index (points) 43.20 46 50 51 48
Retail Sales Ex Gas and Autos MoM (%) 1.00 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.3
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98
Households Debt to GDP (% of GDP) 73.10 76 79 73 73

Housing Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Building Permits (Thousand) 1467.00 1600 1650 1700 1670
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 1321.00 1500 1560 1470 1550
New Home Sales (Thousand units) 693.00 750 780 760 750
Pending Home Sales (%) -7.01 -2 3.5 4.2 3
Existing Home Sales (Thousand) 4190.00 4150 4300 4550 4700
Construction Spending (%) -0.30 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5
Nahb Housing Market Index (points) 51.00 54 57 52 50
Mortgage Rate (%) 7.24 6.4 6.2 6 5.4
Case Shiller Home Price Index YoY (%) 6.60 4.5 3.2 2.8 2.2
Case Shiller Home Price Index (points) 317.07 329 329 326 324

Energy Actual Q2/24 Q3/24 Q4/24 Q1/25
Crude Oil Rigs 511.00 520 515 505 505