The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between May 2 and May 9.
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Supplemental Survey Report focusing on supply chain disruptions to be released on May 20 at or shortly after 8:30 a.m.
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the May 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index was little changed at -15.6. New orders declined significantly, while shipments held steady. Unfilled orders continued to decline. Delivery times shortened, and inventories were little changed. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours worked continuing to move lower. The pace of input and selling price increases moderated slightly. Though firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism was subdued.
Manufacturing activity continued to contract in New York State, according to the May survey. The general business conditions index came in at -15.6, similar to last month’s reading. The new orders index was unchanged at -16.5, pointing to an ongoing significant decline in orders, while the shipments index climbed to -1.2, suggesting that shipments held steady. Unfilled orders continued to fall modestly. The inventories index came in at 2.0, indicating that inventories were steady, and the delivery times index inched down to -9.1, suggesting that delivery times shortened.
The index for number of employees came in at -6.4, and the average workweek index moved up to -5.8, pointing to an ongoing decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index retreated five points to 28.3, and the prices received index declined three points to 14.1, indicating that price increases moderated slightly.
Optimism about the outlook remained subdued. The index for future business conditions dipped five points to 16.7, with only 37 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve in the next six months. The outlook for employment growth weakened noticeably. The capital spending index fell to 6.7, suggesting that capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
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Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025