Allais effect

ryu238 · Post by **ryu238** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 6:39 pm

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What do you guys think? Convental explanations have come and several times the effects weren't seen.

Canadian Skeptic · Post by **Canadian Skeptic** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:37 pm

Regression towards the mean.

ryu238 · Post by **ryu238** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:31 pm

...? What does that mean?

Canadian Skeptic · Post by **Canadian Skeptic** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:41 pm

It's remarkably common when scientists study some phenomenon and get exciting new results. Then they study it more and, strangely, the results tend to go away over time. Subsequent studies can't consistently replicate the results.

All that's happening is the initial study is essentially a fluke -- they got an abnormally high result -- and thought "Wow! That's interesting. I wonder what's going on?" Then, upon further inquiry, subsequent experiments get results closer to what we would expect -- the mean (the expected value). Hence, any additional studies "regress towards the mean" or, in layman's terms, are closer to what you would expect.

From Wikipedia:

In statistics, regression toward (or to) the mean is the phenomenon that if a variable is extreme on its first measurement, it will tend to be closer to the average on its second measurement—and, paradoxically, if it is extreme on its second measurement, it will tend to have been closer to the average on its first.

ryu238 · Post by **ryu238** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 8:49 pm

Ah...what do you tell someone who invokes this to say that folcoults pendulum doesn't show the earth's rotation?

Canadian Skeptic · Post by **Canadian Skeptic** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:00 pm

I would raise an eyebrow at them and look at them quizzically.

Jokes aside (half-joke. Honestly, I don't think there is anything you can say to such a person -- what is their larger argument, anyhow? That the Earth isn't rotating?), I would probably explain to them that Foucault's pendulum does, in fact, demonstrate the rotation of the Earth, and if they cite the Allais effect as proof that this isn't the case, I would explain that the Allais Effect isn't real, but rather a statistical anomaly.

We would actually expect some few studies to show the variation that Allais measured; it would be entirely strange if we didn't. However, we need to take all the studies together, not just the first anomalous one, to identify what's really going. In the case of the Allais Effect, there is nothing going on. Just statistical chance, nothing more, which was demonstrated by doing more studies on it.

Whether or not that will satisfy your debating partner is uncertain, though if I know anything of human behaviour, I wouldn't bet on it.

Canadian Skeptic · Post by **Canadian Skeptic** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:06 pm

I would probably also add that, if your friend pushes back responding that some of the replicating studies did show *some* (albeit reduced) effect, regression towards the mean has an unfortunate relationship with the file drawer effect.

The File Drawer Effect is when a person studies something, gets a positive result and, because the result is positive and interesting (as would be the case with Allais' initial discovery), it's more likely to be published. Subsequent scholars seeking to replicate this effect, however, if they do not get positive results are actually quite a bit less likely to be published.

The final result is more positive findings than negative findings are published, skewing our conclusions in favour of the positive findings -- even though there were likely far more negative studies than positive. Most of the negative ones just happened to be tossed in the trashbin.

You can actually do statistical analyses of all these things to determine whether or not the results can be attributed to Regression Towards the Mean or the File Drawer Effect, but that's unfortunately beyond my ability to do. You may have luck doing a google scholar search for Allais and Regression Towards the Mean, however.

Canadian Skeptic · Post by **Canadian Skeptic** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:16 pm

Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_eff ... ef);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.

ryu238 · Post by **ryu238** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 9:30 pm

Thanks! :-)

Gord · Post by **Gord** » Mon Apr 13, 2015 10:50 pm

ryu238 wrote:http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect
What do you guys think? Convental explanations have come and several times the effects weren't seen.

Consider this quote from your source:

A published article on the topic in a mainstream scientific journal (Flandern, 2003) concludes that there have been "no unambiguous detections [of an Allais effect] within the past 30 years when consciousness of the importance of [experimental] controls was more widespread." This paper also suggests a mechanism that might cause slight gravitational variations during an eclipse (high speed high-altitude winds). They point out that "the gravitation anomaly discussed here is about a factor of 100,000 too small to explain the Allais excess pendulum precession… during eclipses" and from this conclude that the original Allais anomaly was merely due to poor controls.

If the Flandern/Yang experiment is considered to be evidence in support of the Allais effect, it seems significant to me that their readings are "a factor of 100,000 too small" to explain the Allais effect. In other words, it doesn't confirm it at all. The Allais effect was not recorded by them.

The other studies listed either didn't find anything or weren't publish, with one exception: The experiment of E. J. Saxl and M. Allen in 1970. Their results are mentioned here: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mildred_Allen" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

For nearly 20 years, starting in the early 1960s, Allen collaborated with Erwin Saxl, an industrial physicist living in Harvard, Massachusetts, on experiments with a torsion pendulum. Allen and Saxl reported anomalous changes in the period of a torsion pendulum during a solar eclipse in 1970 and hypothesized that “gravitational theory needs to be modified”. Their measurements, and similar anomalies earlier observed by Allais using a paraconical pendulum, have not been accepted by the physics community as in need of unconventional explanation, and subsequent experiments have not succeeded in reproducing the results.[4]

Footnote 4 refers to the paper by Van Flandern and Yang (2003), "Allais gravity and pendulum effects during solar eclipses explained", published in Physical Review.

The Saxl/Allen results are also mentioned here: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erwin_Saxl" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Saxl and Allen's claim that general relativity must be modified, and earlier claims of a similar nature by Allais based on observations of anomalies in the behaviour of a paraconical pendulum, have not won acceptance by the physics community, and recent attempts to reproduce the phenomena have not been successful.[9]

Again, footnote 9 refers to that paper by van Flandern and Yang.

While I can't check it for myself to be certain, the inference is that the Flandern/Yang experiment also did not support the Saxl/Allen experiment.

Steve the Christ · Post by **Steve the Christ** » Wed May 06, 2015 12:34 pm

Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.

hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.

Gord · Post by **Gord** » Thu May 07, 2015 1:45 am

Steve the Christ wrote:
Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.
hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.

You are a joke, right? A poe?

Monster · Post by **Monster** » Thu May 07, 2015 12:58 pm

Gord wrote:
Steve the Christ wrote:
Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.
hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.
You are a joke, right? A poe?

Judging by his body language and voice in his videos, I think he's serious, and I think he's insane.

Gord · Post by **Gord** » Thu May 07, 2015 6:34 pm

Monster wrote:
Gord wrote:
Steve the Christ wrote:
Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.
hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.
You are a joke, right? A poe?
Judging by his body language and voice in his videos, I think he's serious, and I think he's insane.

That doesn't rule out him being a poe. If anything, it supports the idea.

scrmbldggs · Post by **scrmbldggs** » Thu May 07, 2015 9:25 pm

Monster wrote:
Gord wrote:
Steve the Christ wrote:
Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.
hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.
You are a joke, right? A poe?
Judging by his body language and voice in his videos, I think he's serious, and I think he's insane.

I thought about this and the possible implications... bursting his bubble might have unpredictable and unintended consequences.

Gord · Post by **Gord** » Fri May 08, 2015 4:52 am

scrmbldggs wrote:
Monster wrote:
Gord wrote:
Steve the Christ wrote:
Canadian Skeptic wrote:I'm apparently getting wrapped up in this. Just to give an example of the File Drawer Effect, consider this reference on the Wikipedia page under External Links:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allais_effect#Explanations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Dave Dooling, "French Nobel Laureate turns back clock", Science@NASA (Oct. 12, 1999). A 1999 NASA attempt to observe an Allais effect; no results are reported. No results were ever published.
hahah funny to see the bias against a stationary earth and the methods used to cover up the tests.

carry on, heliotards.
You are a joke, right? A poe?
Judging by his body language and voice in his videos, I think he's serious, and I think he's insane.
I thought about this and the possible implications... bursting his bubble might have unpredictable and unintended consequences.

Yeah, well, that's true for me, too. DON'T TOUCH MY BUBBLES!! :shakefist:

scrmbldggs · Post by **scrmbldggs** » Fri May 08, 2015 5:49 am

How about only one? :gum:

Steve the Christ · Post by **Steve the Christ** » Fri May 08, 2015 6:27 am

:evil:

shhh i am actual saaaaataaaaan...

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

now i must curse you all. :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil: :evil:

Matthew Ellard · Post by **Matthew Ellard** » Fri May 08, 2015 7:04 am

Steve the Christ wrote:shhh i am actual saaaaataaaaan..

Clown 1.jpg

scrmbldggs · Post by **scrmbldggs** » Fri May 08, 2015 7:06 am

:hmm:

Gnostics might be a bit disappointed...

Matthew Ellard · Post by **Matthew Ellard** » Fri May 08, 2015 7:27 am

scrmbldggs wrote::hmm:

Gnostics might be a bit disappointed...

Steve the Christ.jpg

Steve the Christ · Post by **Steve the Christ** » Fri May 08, 2015 8:10 am

Matthew Ellard wrote:
scrmbldggs wrote::hmm:

Gnostics might be a bit disappointed...
Steve the Christ.jpg

uh oh :twisted: :lol:

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