A field guide to 2016

“RUNNING for office is real simple,” Ted Cruz told supporters in New Hampshire recently, within earshot of a Politico reporter. “You just surgically disconnect your shame sensor. Because you spend every day asking people for money. You walk up and say, ‘How are you doing, sir? Can I have money? Great to see you, lovely shirt, please give me money’.” This year should be a good one for shame surgeons: the Republican field for 2016 so far consists of 20 men and one woman who have either declared their candidacy for president, set up the machinery for a run or expressed an interest in running.

Making sense of this stampede requires sorting them into categories. We have come up with six (see table). Of the 21 only six candidates—the A-listers and the Dark Horses—look plausible. Most pundits have been too quick to discount Chris Christie, the governor of New Jersey, who reminded them why his candidacy might be interesting by announcing support for raising the retirement age and means-testing Social Security, two things that are usually considered the electoral equivalent of drinking weedkiller. The same is true of John Kasich, the governor of Ohio, who has been quiet thus far but is a moderate with a good record from a crucial swing state.

The largest group is made up of those who have no chance of winning but will benefit from the publicity that a presidential run, however quixotic, brings. Mike Huckabee’s career on cable TV gets a boost from being taken semi-seriously as a politician, and his campaign would double as a book tour. Rick Santorum, a former senator, and Ben Carson, a brain surgeon, have books to sell. John Bolton, a neoconservative intellectual, and Pete King, a congressman, would just like more attention.

The Job Hunters are almost as numerous. These people have better CVs than most of the self-publicists, but also no chance of winning. A presidential bid could remind people that they exist and might be worthy of a post in a new administration, or in a lobbying firm if the Republican candidate loses. That leaves the Insurgents, Senators Ted Cruz and Rand Paul, who are likely to push other candidates into positions they might find uncomfortable but will not get the nomination. The final group is the No Hopers, among whom Lindsey Graham, a likeable, outspoken senator, gets an honourable mention.

There may be more still to come, a prospect that might require the construction of a double-decker stage for the first Republican debate in August. Another option might be to borrow some space from the Democrats, who currently have the opposite problem and would be delighted if a few more candidates materialised.