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The New England Patriots are 5-2 straight up and against the spread in their last seven games against the Denver Broncos, but two of the last three games in this head-to-head rivalry have gone Denver's way. The Patriots will look to return to the Super Bowl for the second straight season with a road win this Sunday against the Broncos.
New England is a 3-point road betting favorite in the AFC Championship Game according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. The Patriots are just 1-5 ATS in their last six conference championship games despite an 8-3 SU record in their last 11 AFC Championship Game appearances.
After ending the regular season in an 0-2 SU and ATS rut, the New England Patriots looked like their old selves in a 27-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs. Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski showed no ill effects from regular season injuries in combining for 17 catches, 183 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
A late touchdown from the Chiefs with 1:13 left made the final score look closer than the game was, as New England looked in command from start to finish.
In the previous 16 head-to-head battles between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Brady has held a decisive edge with an 11-5 SU and 9-6-1 ATS record. Brady has won four of his last five games against Manning straight up.
The Denver Broncos didn't get their first touchdown of the postseason until the fourth quarter last week, but the team still did enough to win in a 23-16 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Pittsburgh appeared to be on its way to an upset before the Denver defense forced a key turnover that set up a game-sealing touchdown drive for the Broncos. Denver is 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight conference championship games.
Sunday's total is set at 44 points. The OVER is 11-5 all-time in games between Manning and Brady and 5-1 in their last six meetings.
Denver beat New England 30-24 in overtime when these two teams met earlier this season. But with Edelman, Gronkowski and Danny Amendola healthy this time around, look for New England's superior offense to tip the scales in the Patriots' favor as a 3-point road favorite.
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
When: 3:05 p.m. ET Sunday
Where: Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
Betting Line / Total: New England -3 / 44 Points