Back in February, Game of Thrones author George R.R. Martin had some morbid news about Season 5. “People are going to die who don't die in the books, so even the book readers will be unhappy. So everybody better be on their toes. [Game of Thrones co-creators David Benioff and D.B. Weiss] are even bloodier than I am,” he promised. Well now, after obsessively watching the Season 5 trailers and clips released by HBO, we have a better idea of which characters might be marked for death.

What follows is a speculation-packed look at the Game of Thrones characters still alive in the books who are most likely to kick the bucket in Season 5. As you might guess, spoilers abound.

It’s no surprise that the show wants to increase the body count—the fourth and fifth books aren’t nearly as bloody as the first three, and the HBO show has a violent reputation to maintain. It’s not as if the series has shied away from bumping off characters who are still alive in the books before. (R.I.P. Jojen Reed, Talisa/Jeyne, Irri, and Rakharo), but so far the series has stuck with C-string characters (sorry, Jojen!) whose deaths don’t carry that much impact when it comes to plot. That will likely change in Season 5.

Our A-stringers—Daenerys Targaryen, Jon Snow, Tyrion Lannister, Arya Stark, and Bran Stark—are still safe this year, not only because those actors signed contracts through Season 7, but because Martin said in his original outline that those were the five characters who make it to the very end of the book series. And as we know for certain now, Game of Thrones the show will end the same way as the books do. (I’d throw Cersei and Jaime—everyone’s favorite incestuous twins—in there as also safe. For now.)

So if the A-string players are safe, it’s up to the B-string to provide the body count. These are still likely to be characters who are either still alive but insignificant to future plot or rumored to be dead in the books. (We call that second category the Jojen Effect.) But they’re a cut above handmaidens and show-created prostitutes. That being said, here’s who’s likely on the chopping block in Season 5.

Mance Rayder: In the books the King Beyond the Wall is supposedly burned alive by Stannis. Melisandre, you’ll remember, is fond of roasting people—especially those with royal blood. But in the books Mance’s death is an elaborate ruse, and it’s actually his lieutenant, Rattleshirt, who burns in his place. But I have a suspicion the show is going to burn Mance himself. (Rattleshirt may kick the bucket later. At Hardhome.) We know an unidentified actor told Entertainment Weekly he had read the books, expected to have more to do this season, and was quite surprised to die right away. That sounds like Mance to me.

I think this is also how Maester Aemon of the Night’s Watch will go. Remember, he has royal Targaryen blood in him. Aemon dies in the books, though not by Melisandre’s flame. But I think Melisandre will torch a few old men throughout the season (Episode 5, “Kill the Boy,” is named for the Maester’s last words to Jon) and set up the credible threat of the red witch roasting Staniss’s daughter Shireen by series end.

Ser Loras: Melisandre represents one type of religious zealotry run amok and Jonathan Pryce’s High Sparrow represents another. The new High Septon goes on an arresting tear, locking up both Margaery and Cersei. But what about Loras? In the books, Margaery’s brother gets grievously and possibly mortally injured in battle. But rather than douse the Knight of Flowers in boiling oil it would appear, from the trailer scene above, that Loras gets drawn into the High Sparrow’s crusade. That appears to be his (and Oberyn’s) lover Olyvar on the stand giving testimony that is none too pleasing to Loras. His death (for sexual misconduct?) might make Cersei and Margaery’s imprisonment seem that much more threatening.

Ser Bronn: In the books, after he betrays Tyrion at trial, Bronn settles into the country with his new wife on the estate Cersei bribed him with never to be heard from again. But we know from the trailers and behind-the-scenes images that in the show Bronn accompanies Jaime to Dorne to rescue Princess Myrcella. None of this happens in the book, but there is a King’s Landing knight, Ser Arys Oakhart, who goes to Dorne to watch over Myrcella. When his protection of her turns to rebellion against House Martell and King’s Landing he’s axed by Areo Hotah, imposing captain of the House Martell guards. The part of Oakhart hasn't been cast, but Hotah has and his famous axe was already a centerpiece of its own Game of Thrones video. In fact, HBO may have revealed the death blow in that same video.

We’ll miss Bronn if he goes but the upshot is we’ll get at least a little time on the road with him and Jaime before he dies. Bronn was always at his best with the Lannister brothers.

Grey Worm: Dany is going to encounter a lot of challenges to her rule this season and it would be highly unlikely for her to get through all of that with her entire team intact. I had initially thought that Ser Jorah would meet his doom in the fighting pits. (That still might happen.) But after the Game of Thrones trailer threw Grey Worm into the center of a fight with the deadly Sons of the Harpy, it looks like everyone’s favorite eunuch might be in trouble. Grey Worm isn’t much of a character in the books, but his role has been beefed up as part of the romance plot with Dany’s translator Missandei. In the books, Missandei’s brother Mossador dies at the hands of the Sons. That character doesn’t exist in the show thus far and, as we know, Game of Thrones is fond of blurring the line between brother and lover.

Tormund: Someone on Jon’s side will have to die during the massive battle at Hardhome in Season 5. So that puts Sam, Dolorous Edd, and Tormund at risk. Rumors have Tormund being the one to go. (And spectacularly at that.) It will be odd to lose Ygritte, Tormund, and Mance. That means no more recognizable characters on the Wildling side of the wall. (Unless Osha and Rickon come back. Come back!) Could that mean that all of the Wildling negotiations in Martin’s books aren’t all that essential to the overall plot? I wouldn’t be surprised.

At Least One Bolton and a Handful of Freys: Sansa’s not at Winterfell this season for her health. She’s there for revenge. And while it might be fun to watch her bake some random Freys into a pie, I’ll be very surprised if a recognizable enemy didn’t get what is coming to them. Are Roose and Ramsay safe because they have more fighting to do? Not in my book. I’ve come to think no one is safe from the combination of Littlefinger and Sansa.

Davos Seaworth: This is another fakeout slaughter in the books. Davos’s death is reported in Book Four and then contradicted in Book Five. There are a lot of knights and fighters on the list above (and no women . . . hmm), but Davos is the one who has likely made the most emotional connection with viewers. Who doesn’t love a bootstrapping illiterate with a little girl for a best friend? Davos’s death would be a serious blow.

And Those Who Won’t...: Jon Snow’s “death” (come on, you know he’s coming back) will likely be a big cliffhanger of the season. As will Brienne and Pod in peril at the hands of Lady Stoneheart. (Yup! I still believe she’s coming.) But Martin has confirmed that Brienne and Pod make it in the books and I think all three survive Season 5. Or, at least, two of them will.