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Opec market report: Five graphs signalling higher oil prices
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) expects demand for oil to rise. Here are five graphs which show why prices are set to increase
Opec agreed to leave its production ceiling unchanged last week. Yet the group of 12 major producers expects oil demand to pick up this year, driven by higher consumption in developed markets.
Here are five key graphs which show why oil prices could end the year higher than their current levels of around $65 per barrel.
• US production has plateaued: The oil rig count in the US fell to 642 units in the first week of June, marking 26 weeks of straight declines. Output of petroleum liquids appears to have reached a plateau after drilling work in less profitable areas dried up. Unless there is a dramatic turnaround in new drilling activity, the US will struggle to maintain output at current levels in the second-half of this year.
• Americans are driving again: Lower petrol prices in the US have seen American drivers return to the roads in greater numbers, while consumers are once again buying high-capacity pickup trucks that have lower fuel economy. As we enter into the driving season, expect US consumption to keep rising while domestic output stagnates.
• Opec keeps pumping: The group has agreed to maintain output at 30m bpd, but in many cases individual countries like Saudi Arabia are pumping crude at near record levels. At the same time, world oil supply has fallen, indicating that non-Opec producers are feeling the pain of lower prices far harder than their counterparts. This will eventually rebalance the market and remove the current surplus in supply.
• China: The world's second-largest economy is also showing signs of stronger demand. Orders for crude and liquid petroleum gas have started the year strongly. A recovery in Chinese demand would alone be enough to revive the oil market.
• Wall Street is turning bullish on commodities: The decline in commodity prices was coupled with a dramatic slump in investment flowing into the sector. From coal miniers to oil companies, investors fled the sector in droves. However, there are signs that the rout in commodities is over and that the sector is now oversold. With more investment flowing in, resources companies might now be tempted to revise their current strategies of slashing spending and ditching projects. Concern over the cutback in global investment into new oil production has even prompted Opec to look into the impact this may have on future supplies.