masterluc (OP)
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May 30, 2015, 02:33:26 AM
Last edit: May 30, 2015, 03:13:15 AM by masterluc |
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I started to think bitcoin price entered silence stage. More than month in range lock dancing just above weekly sma200.... This is what we had in 2011-2012. I told about that fractal that I expect it now (as they are similar waves I). And now I try to catch a silence stage. But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction... Also you may estimate in this model how much time till next bubble  (~ 2 years in my estimations)   |
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lebing
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May 30, 2015, 04:25:56 AM |
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snip
Nice one, thanks Oda. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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lebing
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Enabling the maximal migration
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May 30, 2015, 04:29:59 AM |
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I started to think bitcoin price entered silence stage. More than month in range lock dancing just above weekly sma200.... This is what we had in 2011-2012. I told about that fractal that I expect it now (as they are similar waves I). And now I try to catch a silence stage. But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction... Also you may estimate in this model how much time till next bubble (~ 2 years in my estimations) It also feels like it did in 2011. Quite some uncertainty and the price still not going down farther for an extended period of time. Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble? Based on the length of the bear trend? I estimate that once we get a working block size limit increase, we will "unlock" the next bubble. It will be slow and steady for awhile, maybe 6 months to a year before people realize again that its starting and then all hell breaks loose... again. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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masterluc (OP)
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May 30, 2015, 05:07:23 AM |
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Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?
I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years). I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead. I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months. So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go. |
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molecular
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May 30, 2015, 06:56:44 AM |
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Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?
I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years). I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead. I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months. So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go. If this fractal indeed has merit, shouldn't we first see a revisit of ~$160 before the bounce would occur?  |
PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0 3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
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masterluc (OP)
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May 30, 2015, 07:32:39 AM |
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They say bitcoin network reaching it's transactions per block throughput...
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Afrikoin
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alan watts is all you need
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May 30, 2015, 07:42:02 AM |
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1 year, 1.5, 2 years i can wait and accumulate BTC  |
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8up
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May 30, 2015, 08:18:08 AM |
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Where did you get 2 years for the next bubble?
I expect silence stage is equivalent to correction stage in time (~1.5 years). I expect correction stage is in it final phase, end is not too far ahead. I expect bounce stage is ahead and may take up to 6 months. So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go. Silence can include a tiny-little bubble, too. Maybe X2 or X3 and a following contraction until more silence happens.  |
Always wrong until not.
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BldSwtTrs
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May 30, 2015, 09:34:46 AM |
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But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction...
Why the bounce couldn't be the period from 152$ to 304$? |
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lebing
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May 30, 2015, 11:35:11 AM |
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So 0.5 years of bounce stage + 1.5 years of silence stage and there we go.
Silence can include a tiny-little bubble, too. Maybe X2 or X3 and a following contraction until more silence happens. Great graph. Very insightful to see this visually displaying so clearly what I was feeling. |
Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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RyNinDaCleM
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Legen -wait for it- dary
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May 30, 2015, 02:39:43 PM |
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But I still can't identify bounce stage. So probably bitcoin may continue correction...
Why the bounce couldn't be the period from 152$ to 304$? The bounce in 2011-12 was an impulse to create the first wave off the bottom. So similarly, we need to see an impulsive rise to confirm that the bottom is in. The rise from $152-315 was a mess and can only be forced into an impulsive count, whereas it is easily and clearly countable in a corrective manner. Also the proportions aren't working for that scenario. In 2011-12, it was a 7 week rally and the rise to $315 took only 12 days. And since that $304 high is lower than the initial $315 high (and about 3x as long as the 12 day spike to $315), it's not a properly formed impulse. |
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Tzupy
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May 30, 2015, 06:13:28 PM |
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Permabulls interpret the graph through a 2012 "lens", I do through a 2014 one.   |
Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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inca
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May 30, 2015, 07:09:14 PM |
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Permabulls interpret the graph through a 2012 "lens", I do through a 2014 one. Yeah. Wrongly. |
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ImI
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May 30, 2015, 09:35:23 PM |
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Great graph. Very insightful to see this visually displaying so clearly what I was feeling.
aka boring as f |
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nicked
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May 31, 2015, 01:24:28 AM |
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Permabulls interpret the graph through a 2012 "lens", I do through a 2014 one. Yeah. Wrongly. Looks like every time the weighted stability goes above the price line, we go up in price. |
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masterluc (OP)
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May 31, 2015, 02:35:43 AM |
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Progress in indicators Escape trend is under attack  However this one is alive  Hidden daily bearish divergences still here  |
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realdos
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June 01, 2015, 01:33:59 PM |
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Progress in indicators
Escape trend is under attack
However this one is alive
Hidden daily bearish divergences still here
Breaking the escape trend will lead to a plummet? |
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masterluc (OP)
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June 01, 2015, 05:15:40 PM |
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yep
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wpalczynski
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June 01, 2015, 07:19:18 PM |
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We broke the escape trend, any suggestions based on TA where it will bounce?
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