- Boeing eyes 6 months earlier internal “manage to” target than Q2 2020 777X service entry
- Everett lowest cost option for 777X FAL, but Charleston offers non-union lure
- 777X folding wingtip 20 seconds to fold or extend
- Folding wingtip in “latched & locked” position in failure mode
- Folding wingtip 3% better than Code E wing with winglet: Boeing
- Boeing document cites FWT failure per 10,000 dispatches to fold after landing
- FWT failure per 100,000 dispatches to extend before take-off
- Charleston FAL struggling on Section 47/48 fabrication: sources
- Rolls-Royce: big fan size does not always equal best
newly-launched 777X, a successor to the highly-popular long-range 777
jets today, the revamped big-twin turned out to be ‘red’ hot. Not only
do Middle Eastern airlines like the airplane by placing a majority of
259 orders at US$95 billion in an order bonanza, the media frenzy that
ensued, including the site selection on where the 777X will be assembled
and its huge carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) wings will be
built, makes it topping business news headlines repeatedly.
The blockbuster deals – Abu Dhabi-based Etihad Airways’ US$25.2
billion order for 30 Boeing 787-10 Dreamliners, 17 777-9Xs and a launch
order for 8 ultra long-haul 777-8Xs; Dubai-based Emirates Airline
ordering 35 777-8Xs and 115 -9Xs in a joint deal with fellow Doha-based
Qatar Airways, which ordered 50 777-9Xs; proved to be a contentious
point, as sceptics question whether the 777X’s specifications
specifically catered to these Gulf carriers’ ultra long-haul needs risk
marginalising and “emiratising” the airplane by making the rest of the
potential customers pay for “perks” they do not require.
Alongside Boeing’s big bet on an expansion of ultra long-haul flying
rests another equally, if not more, big bet on the “sweet spot” of the
large twin-aisle market shifting from the 350-seat segment that will be
contested by the Airbus A350-1000 and 777-8X, to the 400-seat segment as
air travel demand soars, spurred by economic growth in emerging
economies in Asia/Pacific despite their anaemic performance in 2013 and
the continued growth in Middle Eastern mega-hubs.
“The 777X builds on the heritage of the 777-300ER and incorporates
many advanced technologies designed for the 787 to create a new standard
for widebody airplanes. It will truly be a worthy successor to the
777-300ER. Both of these airplanes are about providing growth options
and flexibility for our customers. The 777-9X fits in the heart of where
we think the market will go,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) vice
president (VP) and general manager (GM) of airplane development Scott
Fancher commented.
Technical superiority sets new benchmark
However, there are early signs of success, as Lufthansa and Hong
Kong-based Cathay Pacific Airways, both renowned for their technically
demanding requirements, topped up the Middle Eastern carriers’ orders
with deals for 34 and 21 777-9Xs, respectively, bringing the 777X
backlog to 280 orders and surpassing its arch-rival, the Airbus
A350-1000′s order backlog of 189 within months of programme launch.
The centrepiece of the revamp that drives the 400-seat 777-9X to have
a 20% lower block fuel burn per seat than the 368-seat 777-300ER and a
15% lower cash operating cost (COC) per seat, as well as a 12% per-seat
fuel burn and 10% COC per seat advantages against a 344-seat A350-1000,
is the 132-inch General Electric GE9X engine that cuts its engine
specific fuel consumption (SFC) by 10%.
The GE9X engine will sport 16 fourth-generation composite blades, 2
and 6 blades fewer than the GEnx and GE90-115B engines, respectively, in
addition to a 61:1 overall pressure ratio (OPR), 27:1 pressure ratio, a
3rd-generation twin-annual pre-mixing swirler (TAPS III) utilising
ceramic matrix composite (CMC) that requires 20% less cooling and is at
1/3 the weight, yet at double strength than conventional materials.
These combined will make the GE9X having a SFC advantage of 5% or
more against the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 onboard the Airbus A350-1000,
which only has a 52:1 overall pressure ratio (OPR) and a 118-inch engine
fan size.
This prompts Derby, United Kingdom-based engine-maker Rolls-Royce to
claim that its Trent XWB engine is the only turbofan that is “validated”
and that a bigger engine fan size creates more drag and weight, which
in turn requires more thrust and carries a fuel penalty in the end.
“The situation today is that the Trent XWB has completed its ground
tests and is well advanced in its flight testing regime on the A350 XWB.
Only two parties that have the complete data on how both the aircraft
and engine are performing – Airbus and Rolls-Royce. And while neither
party, naturally, would share all the data, there is a very clear
message coming from the test programme: The Trent XWB is the most
efficient engine flying in the world today and is on target to meet its
specifications at entry into service next year,” Rolls-Royce spokesman
Bill O’Sullivan insists.
“One key difference, of course, is that the Trent XWB is delivering
its performance now and the GE9X is aiming to achieve a performance
level at entry into service, which now appears to be stated as 2020. In
terms of measuring performance and fan size big does not always equal
best – its about delivering the optimum engine for a given application,
so the engine is right-sized for the aircraft’s specific mission
requirement. And ‘big’ comes with significant drag and weight both of
which translate into fuel burn penalties,” O’ Sullivan adds.
However, while it is true that the Rolls-Royce Trent XWB is poised to
become the most fuel-efficient turbofan when the A350-900 enters into
service in early-September 2014 (“Boeing’s widebody dominance hinges on 777X success“,
24th Oct, 13), Rolls-Royce’s claims appear somewhat vague, as a 1-inch
increase in fan size usually leads to a 0.5% reduction in specific fuel
consumption (SFC). Given the GE9X is 14 inches bigger in fan size than
the Trent XWB-97, a 5% SFC advantage makes sense even after accounting
for the drag and weight penalty.
Next, the GE9X features ceramic matrix composite (CMC) that is 20
years in development and is likely to usher in a new level of thermal
efficiency since the CMC is able to withstand an operational temperature
as high as 2,400°F (1,316°C), which is unlikely to be matched by the
Trent XWB-97 engine, although Rolls-Royce’s study
into a RB3039 engine featuring composite fan blades could theoretically
negate some of GE9X’s advantages by the end of the decade.
Most importantly, any claims saying the GE9X engine is “oversized”
overlooks the fact that the 777-9X is a considerably larger airplane
than the A350-1000 and as such, the airframe-engine combination needs to
be looked at in a proper perspective and is likely to be optimised. For
example, the 777-9X is 76.48m (250.11ft) long and its wing has a 71.1m
(233.4ft) wingspan, compared to the A350-1000′s 73.78m fuselage length
and 64.75m wingspan.
Powering a heavier airframe to achieve a considerably improved
payload/range performance with a range of 8,200nm (nautical miles) and
400 passengers in a 3-class configuration with a 105,000lbs thrust,
firstly reported by Aspire Aviation and subsequently confirmed
by General Electric (GE), also has to be taken into account, which will
carry 14.3% or 50 more passengers and significantly more revenue cargoes
than the A350-1000.
hauling 17 more tonnes of cargo when deployed on the same mission as the
344-seat A350-1000 while having a 5% lower block fuel burn per seat, or
flying sectors that its competitor cannot, it would be safe to assume
Boeing believes the 777X will be the ultra long-haul leader in the
future.
Unsurprisingly, Airbus contests these figures and points out it
estimates the 777-9X will be up to 35 tonnes heavier than the A350-1000
in terms of operating weight empty (OWE) as the A350-1000 is a
clean-sheet design and utilises a carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP)
fuselage, whereas the 777-9X is a “5th derivative” bearing an aluminium
fuselage. This will make the 777-9X more than 15% less fuel efficient
per seat and the -8X more than 5% less fuel efficient per seat versus
the A350-1000.
Make no mistake, while the 777-9X will be heavier than the A350-1000
is an indisputable fact, several factors could skew these comparisons
significantly, thereby rendering them less useful, if not outright
unreliable.
First of all, Airbus and Boeing calculate manufacturers’ empty weight
(MEW) or manufacturers’ weight empty (MWE) in Airbus’ case, in an
utterly different way. Boeing’s methodology includes the weight of cabin
interior, seats and other essential items, making its figure 2-3 tonnes
higher than Airbus’ comparable figure on a 737 or A320-sized airliner,
let alone an aircraft as large as the 777-9X and A350-1000, which may
skew the figure by 7-8 tonnes. This is important as operating empty
weight (OEW) = MEW + Standard Item (SI) + Operator Item (OI), thereby
making the different method used in calculating MEW having a “knock-on”
effect on the comparison.
Furthermore, seat counts and an airline’s configuration matter as a
higher seat count typically reduces the block fuel burn per seat
measure. As if the water is not murky enough and the situation not
confusing enough, Airbus has used the 2-class configuration for the A350
against a 3-class configuration for the 777X family aircraft, which
would otherwise have accommodated significantly more passengers and
altering the picture entirely.
Aspire Aviation believes applying Airbus’ seat standards in
terms of pitch in a 3-class configuration in these comparisons most
accurately reflects the reality, which adopts a 60 inches seat pitch for
business class seats whereas Boeing assumes a 39 inches and 61 inches
seat pitch for business class and first class seats, respectively, while
both plane-makers assume a 32-inch seat pitch for economy seats. In
doing so, the seat count of the 777-9X will be lowered to around 390
seats which Aspire Aviation estimates the -9X will have a 4.7%
lower cost per seat mile at US$0.0648 than a 350-seat A350-1000 at
US$0.0619 on a 6,000nm mission, assuming a 15% and 10% fuel burn saving
for the 350-seat A350-1000 and 390-seat 777-9X in airlines’
configuration versus the 777-300ER, respectively.
The reverse holds true in terms of seat width, as Airbus launched a
futile 18-inch seat width campaign for long-haul travel that backfired
from airlines, despite the clear industry trend that the 10-abreast
configuration is becoming increasingly commonplace accounting for 69% of
all 777-300ER deliveries in 2012, up from 46% in 2011 and 15% in 2010.
“It is completely an issue for airlines. We want to be able to
address our markets in the way we are best positioned in each segment,”
Lufthansa executive vice president (EVP) Nicolas Bucholz commented.
Based on the 777-9X’s cabin width of 5.96m, the seat width in a
10-abreast configuration would be comparable to the A350-1000′s
9-abreast configuration, the former at 20 inches and the latter at 20.3
inches with two 17-inch wide aisles, including the armrest’s width.
Should two 18-inch wide aisles be used, as in an Airbus dossier, the 10-abreast 777-9X would have a 19.8 inches seat width versus the A350-1000′s 20 inches.
In addition, stage length also matters, as a shorter stage length
would favour the A350-1000′s considerably lighter airframe. Boeing
declined to reveal its underlying assumptions for its figures, although
it has traditionally used a 6,000nm mission profile with 85% annual
wind.
A350-900 |
A350-1000 |
777-300ER |
777-8X |
777-9X |
787-10 |
|
3-class pax no. |
||||||
Range (nm) |
8,100 |
8,400 |
7,825 |
9,300 |
8,200 |
7,000 |
6,800 (regional) |
||||||
MTOW (kg) |
268,000 |
308,000 |
351,530 |
351,534 |
351,534 |
250,830 |
250,000 (regional) |
775,000lbs |
775,000lbs |
553,000lbs |
|||
MLW (kg) |
205,000 |
233,000 |
251,290 |
201,800 |
||
445,000lbs |
||||||
MZFW (kg) |
192,000 |
220,000 |
237,683 |
192,800 |
||
425,000lbs |
||||||
MEW/MWE (kg) |
115,700 |
|||||
OEW (kg) |
167,829 |
|||||
Overall length (m) |
66.89 |
73.88 |
69.55 |
76.48 |
68.28 |
|
Wingspan (m) |
64.75 |
64.75 |
||||
Diameter (m) |
||||||
Cabin Width (m) |
||||||
Engines |
Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-84 |
Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 |
General Electric GE90-115B |
General Electric GE9X |
General Electric GE9X |
General Electric GEnx-1B PIP 2 |
Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-TEN |
||||||
Thrust (lbs) |
84,000 |
97,000 |
115,300 |
105,000 |
105,000 |
76,000 |
70,000 (regional) |
Will Washington’s 777X hopes take flight?
These days, however, it is not how technically superior the Boeing 777X
is that comes under media limelight, but where will Boeing place the
777X’s wing plant and final assembly line (FAL), including the
keenly-awaited vote by the 31,000 members of strong International
Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) District 751 on
3rd January during which absentee voting will be allowed.
At stake are 56,000 jobs tied to the Boeing 777 programme with
related economic activities totalling US$20 billion which Boeing
promises to keep the production work of the 4th-generation carbon fibre
reinforced polymer (CFRP) wing in a 1.2 million ft² factory near the
Everett final assembly line (FAL) and assemble the 777X at Everett, as
well as extending the letter of understanding (LOU) to build the 737 MAX
in Renton through 2024.
The improved Boeing proposal, or the best-and-last-final-counteroffer
which offers employees an additional US$5,000 signing bonus in addition
to the retaining of the “Zoom” wage structure which allows new hires to
reach the top of the pay-scale after 6 years, is urged by the local
leadership to be rejected by the machinists, following a 67% rejection
over the original offer on 13th November.
“Because of the massive take-aways, the union is adamantly
recommending members reject this offer,” IAM District 751 wrote on its
website. “[IAM International] ordered the vote over objections of 751’s elected officials”.
These take-aways characterised
by the union include the 1% general wage increase in 2016, 2018, 2020
and 2023 along with a suspension of pension accruement in 2016 and
replaced by a 401(k) defined contribution plan that sees 10%
contribution by Boeing in 2016 and 2017, 6% in 2018 and 4% thereafter
for existing hires whereas new hires would only receive a 4%
contribution.
“The terms of Boeing’s enhanced contract offer to the IAM on December
12 stand. If ratified by the membership, Boeing would honor that
contract,” Boeing said in a statement.
This came as the IAM local leadership alleged Boeing has withdrawn
the offer on 13th December, with IAM District 751 president Tom
Wrobleski claiming “when I said we couldn’t do that, Boeing withdrew the
offer immediately” and Boeing spokesman Doug Alder refuting that
“Boeing did not withdraw its counterproposal, nor was there any need to
do so, because the counterproposal was rejected”.
“We entered these discussions to address the concerns we were hearing
from our employees. We’ve listened to the union leadership and had an
open dialogue in hopes of moving towards each other. Unfortunately the
offer, which would have ensured this great airplane for the Puget Sound
region, was immediately rejected by the union leadership,” Boeing
Commercial Airplanes (BCA) chief executive Ray Conner expressed the
disappointment.
These heightened labour tension, including IAM District 751 president
Tom Wrobleski tearing up a copy of Boeing’s original offer and saying
“I know this is a piece of crap. I will go to see if this can be
withdrawn and not even put to a vote” does not bode well for the
Washington state, despite the union and Conner met on December 10th resulting in the union firstly proposing an offer on December 11th.
Not only did Boeing say that the composite wing will not be built in
Washington state should IAM members reject the improved counteroffer,
Boeing leans towards building the 777X in a right-to-work site at
Charleston, South Carolina in order to reap benefits from the long-term
strategic advantage that reduces the union’s sway and influence, which
has struck every 4 years or so and for 57 days in 2008 and 28 days in
2005, Aspire Aviation understands.
“They made it very clear that if there is a ‘no’ vote on the
contract, they will not build the composite wing here. It left the other
parts of the plane in question,” mayor of Kent, Washington, Suzette
Cooke, said.
Charleston, South Carolina makes sense since it matches several
criteria contained in its 11-page request for proposals (RFP) obtained
by St. Louis Dispatch with
a 10th December deadline, which entails one 4.2 million ft² factory
costing US$7 billion-10 billion to construct and the start of production
of the carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) wings and final assembly
of the 777X in 2016, or a combination of a US$2-4 billion wing factory
and a US$4-6 billion final assembly factory.
It has cheap and abundant land at virtually no cost: Boeing recently
agreed to lease 201 acres of land acquired by Palmetto Railways for US$1
a year until 2027, in addition to the 267 acres of land sold by the
Charleston County Aviation Authority along with the existing 264-acre of
land its second 787 Dreamliner final assembly line (FAL) sits. Boeing
could exercise the option to acquire the newly-leased 468-acre land as
early as 2027.
By utilising these cheap lands, Boeing could boost its return on capital with a new tax break
totalling US$250 million or more while enjoying economies of scale at
the site. The industrial footprint of Boeing South Carolina is already
very broad, with a 391,000ft² 787 aft-body fabrication and assembly
building being added, and a new 230,000ft² paint hangar
to paint South Carolina-built 787s beginning mid-2016, while 737 MAX
propulsion assembly work will begin at a 220,000ft² facility from
mid-2015 onwards. The Seattle Times even cites a document that suggests the 787-10 may be built at Charleston.
While Charleston offers the best option besides Everett and makes sense against the other sites in the 15 short-listed locations,
including Long Beach, Ca; Huntsville, Alabama; San Antonio, Texas;
Charleston, SC; Salt Lake City, in which North Carolina and Pennsylvania
were cut, Aspire Aviation
believes locating the 777X final assembly line (FAL) in Everett and
building the 4th-generation carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) wing
in Japan offers the lowest risk and lowest cost options.
In doing so, not only could Boeing minimise risks such as Boeing
South Carolina’s fabrication of the 787 Dreamliner’s Section 47/48 which
is still struggling, Aspire Aviation‘s multiple sources at
Boeing pointed out; it could also blunt Airbus’ attempt to double its
market share in Japan to 25% within 7 years by outsourcing the wing work
to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) which has proposed
to use 5 roll-on roll-off ships to transport the wings to Everett. This
could help secure All Nippon Airways’ (ANA) order of 777-9X as the Star
Alliance carrier now shares a cozy tie with the Japanese government (“ANA must show ‘Inspirations of Japan’“, 20th Dec, 13).
Crucially, the principal rationale behind Aspire Aviation‘s
favouring of a split of Everett and Japan as the 777X’s locations is
driven by the 777X’s relatively tight schedule, which envisions a 2014
top-level design, a firm configuration in 2015, detailed design in 2016,
a start of production in 2017 and first flight in 2019, followed by an
entry into service (EIS) in the 2nd quarter of 2020.
While Boeing is going to carry out design works in Charleston,
Huntsville, Long Beach, Philadelphia and St. Louis as well as the Boeing
Design Centre in Moscow, choosing Charleston or hollowing out Puget
Sound’s engineering capabilities may not serve the 777X’s best interest
albeit it may give long-term strategic advantage to Boeing.
“Our goal is to leverage skills from across the Boeing enterprise. A
program of this size requires that we bring together all of the talent
that Boeing has to offer. In addition, we are leveraging lessons learned
on 787 and 747-8 to ensure continuity across the 777X program to
accomplish the key design work. The announced structure will allow for
an efficient use of resources and enable Boeing to resolve design issues
effectively the first time,” Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) vice
president (VP) of engineering Mike Delaney and VP and general manager
(GM) of airplane development Scott Fancher said.
It is particularly so as Boeing is adhering to an internal
“manage-to” service entry target of 6 months earlier than the public
2nd-quarter of 2020 target, Aspire Aviation can exclusively
reveal. Assuming an aggressive 9-month flight test programme, the 777-9X
will have to make a first flight in early-2019 in order to achieve the
aforementioned “manage-to” target, the same sources say.
A 6-month earlier service entry target maximises the 777X’s
advantages by leveraging the GE9X engine which would be certified in
2018 following flight testing in 2017. Final design and first engine to
test (FETT) are slated to take place in 2015 and 2016, respectively,
which are preceded by test on compressor and fan rigs in 2013,
demonstration of ceramic matrix composite (CMC) in 2014 and the first
core test in 2015. A split decision on Everett would help support this,
while providing Boeing an extension in US$8.7 billion worth of tax break
from 2024 to 2040.
“I did speak to Ray Conner and said ‘in my humble opinion, please do
not do to the 777X what you did to the 787’. In my opinion it would be
better produced in the U.S. in the areas where you have a dynastic skill
set,” Emirates Airline president Tim Clark opined.
Meanwhile, it is not just the 777X which is fast gaining market
acceptance, but also one of its distinguishing features – the folding
wingtip (FWT) on the 787-styled supercritical wing’s outermost 11ft
(3.35m). Boeing has shed new light on the mechanism of the folding
wingtip, which enables the 777X to be parked at International Civil
Aviation Organisation (ICAO) Code E gates by “moving the aircraft
forward towards the terminal” with “no requirement to downsize adjacent
gate”, according to a 777X airport compatibility brochure obtained by Aspire Aviation.
The folding wingtip (FWT) that improves the 777X wing’s lift-to-drag
ratio (L/D) by 12% and carries an 800kg weight penalty with no moveable
parts versus the 3,200lbs studied for the 777-200 (“Boeing 777X & 787-10 show the lure of the X factor“,
2nd Jul, 13), carries safety features such as “redundant load paths,
command paths, latch actuators” that see the FWT “isolated in flight”
and in “latched and locked” position in failure mode.
Boeing will also modify the 777X’s engine information and crew
alerting system (EICAS) as a “high integrity aircraft position system
will alert the crew to command the tip position when
approaching/departing the runway” and “take-off configuration alerting
will prevent takeoff with the tips folded”, the document states.
The system will also prohibit “inadvertent operation” and inform crew
of “uncommanded tip position” which is linked to electronic checklist
(ECL). In case the folding wingtip fails to fold after landing, which
Boeing anticipates to take place once every 10,000 landings, the 777X
could “taxi to gate via Code F route” but it will have to be towed to
gates at non-Code F airports. For a failure to extend the folding
wingtip, which takes 20 seconds to fully fold or extend, the 777X will
have to return to the gate. Despite the possibility of this occurring is
at 1 failure per 100,000 dispatches, “airlines were overwhelmingly
supportive of FWT at recent airline working group meeting”, the document
writes.
The document also reveals the folding wingtip will slash block fuel
burn by 3% compared to a Code E wing equipped with a winglet
notwithstanding being marginally less fuel efficient than a Code F wing
without the folding wingtip, as well as the “unfolded wingspan is 6.35m
(20.8ft) wider” and the “horizontal stabiliser is 2.47m (8.1ft) wider”
than the 777-300ER.
Besides the folding wingtip, the broad market appeal of the 777X with
280 orders and commitments in less than 2 months of launch seems to
have answered the scepticism if the 777X is being
“emiratised”. Following Aspire Aviation‘s report on the 777X’s
mission creep of increasing its maximum take-off weight (MTOW) to
351,534kg (775,000lbs) with 105,000lbs thrust, several news outlets have
reported similar stories, raising doubts on the need of such demanding
specifications.
Indeed, 50% of all widebody flights are within 2,500nm and 70% of
them are within 4,000nm, whereas only less than 0.4% of flights are
longer than 8,000nm. But these have ignored the fact that the quoted
ranges are at 85% annual winds and assume the airplanes carry the
corresponding number of passengers, without any revenue cargo – the
sellable remaining cargo space that airlines could utilise to generate
high-margin cargo revenues, as profit margins top 60%-70% with costs
being shared with the passenger operation.
Although this may not affect airplanes with small revenue cargo
volumes such as the Airbus A380 and Boeing 747-8I Intercontinental, of
which the former has a 2,995ft³ revenue cargo volume out of
a 5,875ft³ total cargo volume and the latter a 3,895ft³ revenue cargo
volume out of a total cargo volume of 6,345ft³, this will have a
disproportionately profound impact on those airplanes with a large
revenue cargo volume such as the Boeing 777-300ER which has a revenue
cargo volume of 5,200ft³ (“Airbus is still name of the game“, 30th Aug, 13), let alone the 777-9X.
With the 777-9X being 2.62m (8.6ft) longer than the -300ER, its
revenue cargo volume would be unprecedentedly large, thereby likely to
reduce its range by the scale of the 1,500nm-2,000nm reduction once the
airplane is fully loaded with passengers and revenue cargoes. This means
the 777-9X is unlikely to be capable of flying a full payload from Hong
Kong to New York John F. Kennedy (JFK), a 6,974nm route, let alone the
7,204nm Dubai-Los Angeles route, which will be within reach of the
9,300nm 777-8X with a full payload. One exception, however, would
include the lower seat counts airlines typically adopt in the -9X’s
everyday use which make such routes at a full payload feasible.
Nevertheless, Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific does not hide the lure
of the 777-9X which will offer significantly improved payload/range
capabilities at 20% lower block fuel burn and 15% lower cash operating
cost (COC) per seat than the backbone of its fleet, the 777-300ER.
“The 777-9X promises us improved payload range capability and reduced
operating costs, in addition to a significant reduction in
environmental emissions. We think it will be an ideal fit for long-haul
destinations in North America and Europe, in particular those routes
where we carry high volumes of passengers and cargo each day,” Cathay
Pacific chief executive John Slosar affirms.
If anything, Boeing seems to have struck a balance between
specifications and the requirements at the heart of its customer base.
“It was clear right from the beginning that Boeing would have to find
an acceptable solution. We feel comfortable,” Lufthansa’s outgoing
chief executive Christopher Franz reassured.
“We think it’s been built for the industry. It’ll sell like hot
cakes. Is it right for us? Hell, yes, of course it is. We felt for us it
would work – and for [Boeing’s] client base. This is going to be a
great machine and will do the job for a lot of carriers and there will
eventually be 1,000-plus orders at least, in my view,” Emirates Airline
Tim Clark told flightglobal.
Moreover, the 777-9X looks set to be a ideal solution not only as a
true 1-to-1 Boeing 747-400 replacement, but also a shift in the “sweet
spot” or the heart of the large twin-aisle market driven by the
long-term traffic growth, which is forecast to require 3,300 such
airplanes at US$1.09 trillion over the next 20 years.
“[The 777-9X will] catch the front end of the replacement wave for
the 777-300ER and 747-400″, Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA) vice
president (VP) and general manager (GM) of airplane development Scott
Fancher claimed.
A large prospective buyer is International Airlines Group (IAG) whose
British Airways subsidiary is the world’s largest 747-400 operator with
57 examples still in operation and will require around 30 777-9Xs, if
not more, to replace the majority of the fleet as the airline group’s
chief executive is adamant that it will not increase the size of its
A380 fleet beyond 12 units.
Other operators include United Airlines which operates 23 examples and is actively looking
into the airplane; Delta Air Lines with 16 examples; Air France with 7
and mulls cancelling the last 2 A380 orders it has, as well as dozens of
early-built 777-300ERs. Air France operates 37 Boeing 777-300ERs today
and has another 4 on order whereas KLM operates 22 747-400s and 8
777-300ERs with another 2 due to be delivered in 2015.
Early 777-300ER operators whose first deliveries occurred between
2004 and 2007, include All Nippon Airways (ANA), Japan Airlines (JAL)
which opted for the A350-1000, Eva Air, Emirates Airline which phases
out planes in a 12-year replacement cycle and operates 87 examples in
addition to having another 64 firm orders, Etihad Airways, Cathay
Pacific, Air Canada, Air India, Jet Airways, and Singapore Airlines
(SIA) with an eventual fleet of 27 units.
But the biggest bet of all on the 777X lies in the aforementioned
shift in the market sweet spot, with industry body International Air
Transport Association (IATA) predicting a 31% rise in the number of
passengers to 3.91 billion by 2017 at a 5.4% compounded annual growth
rate (CAGR), versus Boeing’s prediction of a 5% rate and Airbus 4.7% in
the next 20 years.
Even at Airbus’ conservative estimate of annual growth in passenger
demand, airlines could handily fill up the 400-seat 777-9X from the
777-300ER, thereby providing a modest up-gauging without suffering from
the risk of filling up a large number of seats profitably, which
Australian flag carrier Qantas has struggled to do with a 50% load
factor on its A380, according to an The Australian report.
This highlights the inherent riskiness in very large airplane (VLA)
such as the A380 and 747-8, as European Aeronautic, Defence & Space
Co. (EADS) chief executive once conceded in a Sydney luncheon that Aspire Aviation attended the
A380 needs a load factor of more than 70% to do well. While the VLAs
offer lower unit cost, or cost per available seat kilometre (CASK), the
A380 has a high break-even load factor (BELF = CASK/yield) as airlines
struggling to fill their seats have no choice but to discount heavily,
thereby dragging down yields, measured by revenue per revenue passenger
kilometre (RPK).
Another significant drawback of VLAs is the compromise in flight
frequency, as high-yield last-minute business travellers favour flights
with closer departure time. A lack of more frequencies may risk losing
these price-inelastic passengers to competing carriers and creating a
“spill-over” demand. Qantas, for example, cut its frequency from
twice-daily to daily once it flies the A380 on the Hong Kong-Sydney
route.
A case in point sees Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific flying 5 times
daily to London Heathrow, with 2 pairs of flights – CX255 and
CX251 departing within 1 hour of each other whereas another pair, CX239
and CX237, departing within 20 minutes of each other, yet is still
enjoying a 95% load factor. With the 777-9X, the oneworld carrier could
seek for growth without cannibalising yields by adding excess capacity
and without the need to operate VLAs, which is a very costly exercise.
Simply put, “owning the sky” unprofitably is meaningless, an irony to
Airbus’ advertising campaign on the A380 superjumbo that has faced a
dearth of orders before Emirates placing 50 additional orders,
accounting for 43% of the A380′s backlog of 329 orders, assuming Doric
Air Lease firmed up its orders for 20 examples before year-end. Orders
from other customers appear shaky, including Hong Kong Airlines for 10,
Qantas’ remaining order for 8, Virgin 6, Skymark Airlines 6 that is
struggling to finance the superjumbo, along with Kingfisher Airlines’ order for 5 which has ceased operations.
Boeing is not immune to the numbered days of quad-jets, with 4 -8F
orders from Cathay Pacific, 2 -8Fs from Silk Way Airlines, 5 -8I
Intercontinental orders in 2013 being offset by 5 cancellations, despite
a 3.5% improvement in block fuel burn, a 2% reduction in operating cost
and a 7,200lbs weight being saved from its operating empty weight (OEW)
that Boeing implemented, thus leaving a backlog of just 55 orders. In
response, Boeing has cut the 747-8′s production rate twice in 2013 from 2
airplanes per month to 1.75 units in April and then from 1.75 airplanes to 1.5 units in October.
Last but not least, although the 777-8X has a much lower profile than
its larger sibling, it has the potential to become a “dark horse” in
combining flexibility with ultra long-haul travel capabilities by
carrying a decent load of revenue cargo and passengers on sectors that
are previously unfeasible, such as the 8,773nm, 8,854nm and 9,094nm long
routes from Sydney to Rome, Frankfurt and Paris, respectively, in
addition to the 8,600nm long Sydney-New York John F. Kennedy route and
the 8,237nm long Singapore-Newark route.
As Boeing touts its 777X, “it’s the future of flight unfolding”.
Interesting times, indeed, on the big bets Boeing placed on the 777X,
including the -8X whose business case remains to be proven, as the
battle in becoming the ultra long-haul leader “unfolds”.
| Aspire Aviation
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