This Sunday, the movie industry will crown the greatest achievements in film from the last 12 months. It's a show that can be really fun—remember Ellen's pizza delivery last year?—but it can also be interminably long and really unfunny. (Remember that time James Franco hosted? Yeah, neither does he.)
Oscar bets are fun, though, and below, you'll find everything you need to smoke your friends in this year's pool. Or maybe you're watching because, well, your wife or girlfriend is making you. (Chances are she loved The Theory of Everything.)
Either way, it's a unique night of TV. Consider this your survival guide.
1.) American Sniper is the most popular Best Picture nominee BY FAR ...
A funny thing happened after this year's Oscar nominations were announced in mid-January. It looked as if we were cruising toward the first year in a decade without a Best Picture nominee that grossed over $100 million at the box office—and it wasn't even close. The Grand Budapest Hotel was the highest-grossing nominee at about $57 million.
But since then, American Sniper became one of the most surprising blockbusters in movie history. Its $308 million total (and counting) is more than the other seven nominees combined. It's absolutely unheard of, and make no mistake, the Oscars' producers are thanking their lucky stars for Clint Eastwood and Bradley Cooper. The lowest-rated Oscar telecasts over the last 10 years are all ones that didn't have a film that grossed over $200 million nominated for Best Picture. (Want to find out what happens after American Sniper ends? Learn the heartbreaking story behind How Chris Kyle Died.)
2.) ... But Best Picture is going to either Birdman or Boyhood.
The good news: There's suspense around what film will take home the night's top prize. Boyhood has the critics in its corner, and won both the Golden Globe and BAFTA awards for Best Picture. Birdman, meanwhile, took home the top prizes from the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild—groups that overlap greatly with Academy voters.
The bad news: There's some potential to royally screw up your Oscar pool. Because there are two films running neck and neck, your best bet is to probably pick one film for both Best Picture and Best Director. There's a great chance they split—Birdman winning one and Boyhood the other—so you're guaranteed to land at least one of the two.
3.) As always, Best Film Editing will be a clue.
Thirteen times since 1990, the movie that won this award took home Best Picture. Interestingly, Birdman isn't nominated, and if it wins Best Picture, it will be the first without this nomination since 1980 (Ordinary People).
Consider that a point for Boyhood in Best Picture, but should something interesting happen, and Whiplash, American Sniper, or The Grand Budapest Hotel takes home Best Film Editing over Boyhood—which isn't inconceivable—Birdman is your likely Best Picture winner.
4.) The acting categories are (almost) sewed up.
If you're selecting anyone other than Julianne Moore (Best Actress), J.K. Simmons (Best Supporting Actor), and Patricia Arquette (Best Supporting Actress) in your Oscar pool, you might as well just throw your money out the window. But the Best Actor category is interesting. The stats say Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything). Sentiment says Michael Keaton (Birdman). The people say Bradley Cooper (American Sniper).
It'll probably be Redmayne, as this is an obvious place to recognize a film that might not get recognized elsewhere, but watch out for Cooper.
5.) The three short categories will make or break your Oscar pool.
They always do, because they constitute one-eighth of the categories overall and almost no one pays them any attention. Not me: I watched all 15 shorts and am here to help you win some dough—or just impress the lady who's making you watch against your will.
The Best Animated Short award should go to either The Dam Keeper or Feast. The former is one of the weightier, more meaningful films in the bunch, but Feast played in front of Big Hero 6 in theaters and is the most widely seen of the five. It's the toughest of these three to call, but my money is on The Dam Keeper.
Best Documentary Short will probably (and should) go to Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1, a moving film about individuals who work for a suicide-prevention hotline dedicated to struggling war veterans.
Another suicide prevention film, The Phone Call, is the likely winner for Best Live Action Short. It stars a Best Supporting Actress nominee from last year, Sally Hawkins, as well as the voice of Oscar winner Jim Broadbent. It's quite good, but setting quality aside, always go with star power in these categories when you're in doubt.
6.) There will be singing. Lots of singing.
Is this the Oscars or the Grammys? Adam Levine, Common, John Legend, Rita Ora, Tim McGraw, Tegan and Sara (with The Lonely Island!), Lady Gaga, Jack Black, Jennifer Hudson, and Anna Kendrick are all set to perform Sunday. Host Neil Patrick Harris will also certainly give us a song-and-dance number to open up the show. With all this music, definitely bet the over when it comes to the show's running time.
7.) You should catch up with these five films before the show.
Your Best Picture favorites, Birdman and Boyhood, are both available to stream on demand. Ditto The Grand Budapest Hotel, which is poised to sweep some of the craft categories (Best Production Design, Best Costume Design, Best Original Score), and along with Best Original Screenplay, it might end up winning more Oscars than any other film.
Some of the smaller films you can and should watch:
Ida: It's up for Best Cinematography and will probably win Best Foreign Language Film. You can stream it via Netflix. (It's 80 minutes long and very good.)
Virunga: This one is nominated for Best Documentary Feature, and while it's unlikely to win, it's so much more thrilling than your average non-fiction movie. (Like Ida, it's also streaming through Netflix Instant.)
8.) The LEGO Movie was robbed!
Everything wasn't awesome for fans of one of the most unique, entertaining, and successful films of 2014 when the Oscar nominations came down. Seen as a runaway winner in the category, The LEGO Movie didn't even earn a nomnination, and as a result, the Best Animated Feature category is pretty wide open. How to Train Your Dragon 2 and Big Hero 6 are the two hits among the group. The former likely has as a slight edge.
But The LEGO Movie might not go home empty-handed. It's up for Best Original Song ("Everything Is Awesome"), which means its cowriter, former SNL star Andy Samberg, might be an Oscar winner in a few days—making everything awesome again indeed.
9.) This year's In Memoriam segment will be especially brutal.
Robin Williams, Lauren Bacall, Mickey Rooney, Mike Nichols, Richard Attenborough, Elaine Stritch, Ruby Dee, Shirley Temple, Harold Ramis, and Unbroken subject Louis Zamperini are among those who will be honored on Sunday's show. Have plenty of tissues handy.
10.) Dick Poop will be there.
He's nominated for Best Cinematography.
John Gilpatrick is a producer for MensHealth.com, and our resident film buff. He's a member of the Online Film Critics Society. Check out his blog, John Likes Movies, for more thoughts on this year's Oscars.
