How much social-media activity actually causes a lift in TV ratings is still debatable.
Now, Nielsen is promoting a new use for TV-related Twitter data: The researcher says correlating tweet activity with on-air promotions can let networks and advertisers better estimate a show’s eventual ratings.
In a study published Monday, Nielsen analyzed 42 broadcast and cable series premieres from late August through early November 2014. For viewers 18-34, programs that were more heavily promoted achieved higher TV audiences when they premiered — no surprise there. (Nielsen didn’t ID the shows in the study.)
However, Nielsen created a model that it said is more accurate in predicting ratings. That combined promo data with Twitter TV activity over a four-week period ending two weeks prior to a show’s premiere (and adjusting for whether the show was on a broadcast or cable net).
Of course, nothing can really predict the future will 100% certitude. Nielsen’s Twitter-TV-plus-promos data set explained 65% of the variance in the premiere audience sizes, compared with 48% using promotions data alone. According to the research firm, the Twitter-enhanced model would help ad agencies and TV networks make better choices about where to place their bets for upcoming shows.
Popular on Variety
Nielsen noted that the study doesn’t prove TV-related chatter on Twitter necessarily leads to bigger ratings. The firm conducted a study in 2013 that analyzed live TV ratings and tweets for 221 broadcast primetime show episodes; that showed the volume of tweets caused statistically significant increases in live ratings among 29% of the eps, although Nielsen said how the dynamic worked wasn’t clear.
The latest study used Nielsen’s 24/7 Twitter TV Tracking data set. That’s currently available to clients for more than 650 English- and Spanish-language shows, according to Nielsen.
